Don’t be taken in by opinion polls used to distort political reality

The recent opinion poll findings released by Ipsos Kenya raised substantial ire and concern among the public. Barrack Muluka, my former student, friend and colleague, an incisive and erudite analyst and critic of public affairs, in an OpEd piece in the columns of The Standard on Saturday, tore that opinion poll to shreds. Few would have faulted Barrack’s arguments, and what I can do is simply amplify on certain points the public has continued to be puzzled about. Foremost in our minds are the following questions. What are opinion polls? What use do they serve? Are they the same thing as market surveys or are they different?

In many ways, opinion polls and market surveys are not really different: they both have to do with trying to determine, understand predict and know human behaviour objectively and, dare I say, scientifically. They both use statistical tools for predicting behaviour.