Take heart my countrymen, poll violence highly unlikely

A recent posting on social media containing details of how to stock essentials in case of violence presumably after the polls was quickly ignored by WhatsApp group members. Long fictional write-ups on what could happen if there is violence in Kenya have also been going round. However, “emotional violence” has been rife on social media occasionally muted by comedy and fun. Every political decision on both sides of the political divide has its cheerleaders and men and women ready to oppose.

The absence of a hot issue like the International Criminal Court (ICC) has left the political field wide open, with observers opining that elections could go either way. But 36 days is a long time in politics as events in recent UK, USA and France general elections showed. It is, however, contestable if our political market is efficient enough to factor in new information that fast.

Elections turn violent if it is hard to decide the margin of victory. 50 per cent plus one vote is the threshold but it needs to be plus many, at least five per cent, for the victory to be incontestable. Sabre rattling aside, I do not think there will be violence after the August 8 General Election no matter who wins or loses. The reasons are more economic than political.

Devolution

The main political reason is devolution; there will be something for everyone irrespective of who goes to State House. It has become hard to deny certain regions resources because of their political inclination. This has emboldened some governors to the extent of exchanging words with the President whose power was the target of the 2010 Constitution.

The other political reason is that Kenyans have talked so much in the last five years and expressed all their anger, courtesy of a vibrant media and laws that guarantee free speech. They say you should fear silent waters; they are likely to be deep and more likely to drown you or harbour crocodiles. The deepening belief in the rule of law has also made violence unlikely.

It seems the ghosts of 2007/08 violence and the ICC still haunt us and moderate the excesses of political contestants. If you watched the ICC and the indicted Kenyans, it was not fun, despite the cases ending with fanfare.

 Some suggest that ordinary Kenyans, despite all the stereotypes about tribes, are peace loving. How many inter-tribal wars were recorded before and during colonialism? Inter-tribal wars or violence is our invention. How many inter-tribal couples do you know? The threat of terrorism may also have toned down the political extremists.

The economic reasons for non-violence are overwhelming.

One is that few Kenyans can afford the luxury of violence; majority live on the economic edge even when there is plenty of peace. They know the precariousness of violence in an already fragile situation. The utopian promises achievable through violence are just that. Many Kenyans can see through such political promises. They are ahead of their leaders.

Two, most Kenyans, irrespective of their social economic class, have tasted modernity. From mobile phones to OLED TV, eating out or taking children to private schools, even those of modest means aspire to be affluent. Just visit a slum. They would loathe losing that.

Three, the international community will not allow violence in Kenya. The country has become too strategic to fall into violence. In the last few years, they have invested lots money through the Securities Exchange and outright acquisition or direct investment. Where would we be economically without 2007/08 violence? They will not watch all this investment go down the drain.

This is perhaps the main reason why no matter who wins, the drums of war will go silent. Investors are attracted by our growing affluence (no politician will say that) and taste for foreign goods and services. So much so that Kenya has become a giant supermarket. Some firms closed shop and now import finished products. They cite rising operational costs. Who has invested lately?

American cars from Ford to Chevy are now on Kenyan roads. Their hotel chains like Crowne Plaza and Hilton are here or are expanding. Their food chains from KFC to Subway are here. IBM has returned; Google, Apple and other chains are doing business in Kenya. French have Carrefour supermarkets; they sold their stake in Telkom, which was snapped by Helios, a firm that formerly owned about 12 per cent of Equity Bank and has Nigerian owners.

The Chinese have invested heavily in Kenya beyond the standard gauge railway (SGR) and Thika Superhighway. Your phone could be Huawei, Tecno or Lenovo. Their cars like Foton, Cherry, Grandtiger and Greatwall are around. They have gone a step ahead of the Japanese by making cultural inroads through Confucius institutes housed not in primary schools but universities. And the Alibaba genius Jack Ma is headed here next month.

The Japanese have reacted to Chinese competition by going beyond cars into fertiliser and other projects. South Africans, after trial and error, finally have got it right in Kenya. They are doing well in Telcos and financial sector, particularly banking and insurance. Lots of other economic powers are getting into Kenya through South Africa. We can list many other nationalities or firms out to make money in Kenya.

One of the unintended consequences of the 2010 Constitution was making it easier for non-Kenyans to do business in Kenya. They carry no baggage and are welcome as foreign investors. Domestic investors are rarely welcome into other counties, even if they have more money.

The non-Kenyan or foreign investors long realised they are welcome and we are too engrossed in political intrigues to bother them. That is why, though everyone shouts Kenyans are corrupt and Kenya is hopeless, investors are flourishing and investing more.

The fourth reason is prayers as Kenyans throng churches, mosques and other holy places to pray for peace. We have always been a religious people, no wonder Christianity found a fertile ground and flourished.

If you expect violence after August, relax. If I had money, I would put lots of it in the stocks whose prices will go up after August 2017 polls.

This country has reached a tipping point away from physical violence. Emotional violence expressed through social media and political rallies will continue but as an echo from the past. Have you noted that TV campaigning is very unexciting? That will become a permanent feature of our politics as we modernise and leave politicians behind.

“Your tribe ate, it’s our chance to eat.” Such a statement is common even among the educated. Lots of Kenyans harbour grudges against each other emanating from our history. The colonial government excluded Africans from the best land, the best jobs and even forbid them from investing in some crops, which would have led to economic empowerment. The feeling of exclusion and injustice eventually boiled over, leading to the Mau Mau uprising and eventually independence.

Exclusion and bitterness

Former employees of the colonialists provide interesting insights into the exclusion and how it created bitterness. One such employee is Mama Itegi who worked for a mysterious Afrikaan lady whose identity I am still trying to unravel. Her nickname was Warukira. They had to walk 30km to the labour office to get paid their wages.

Another employee called Kamwaro Kimani tells me of how they were repatriated to their villages from mzungu farms and replaced with “more patriotic” employees during Mau Mau. That is how the Turkana found their way to Nyandarua County, part of the former white highlands, after Kikuyus were repatriated to their original homes in Central province.

After uhuru, the same exclusion was either continued or not addressed. With only four presidents, who wielded a lot of political and economic power (except Uhuru Kenyatta), most communities feel they have been excluded from the eating table.

That is why despite diluting the President’s power and ensuring some money unconditionally goes to the counties, the presidency is still a coveted prize.

It does not matter who wins in August 2017; equity and fairness must be addressed. How do you ensure fairness and equity without hurting innocent people, both physically and emotionally? Unfortunately, you can’t create an algorithm to address both. It becomes even more difficult when lots of Kenyans believe in zero-sum game; for every winner, there is a loser.