Obstacles to south Sudan's vote on independence

KHARTOUM, Aug 12

Southern Sudanese are due to vote on whether to become Africa's newest nation state in less than five months, but a growing mountain of unsolved problems has raised doubts about the planned referendum.

The Jan. 9, 2011 plebiscite is the climax of a 2005 peace deal between the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), ending Africa's longest civil war. The accord was supposed to ensure democratic transformation in Sudan.

Here are some of the issues which need to be resolved ahead of the vote.

Border

The northern NCP says there can be no referendum without demarcating the disputed north-south border, along which most of Sudan's oil wealth lies. The SPLM says the NCP has deliberately delayed border demarcation, due to have been completed by July 2005, and says the referendum is not conditional upon border agreement. Many fear this could spark a conflict if the south secedes -- as most believe it will. Neighbours Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a war over a tiny town of little economic significance. Sudan's estimated 6 billion barrels of crude reserves is a much larger prize.

Delays

The north-south partners in peace have bickered over implementing almost every part of the deal, and the South Sudan Referendum Commission was no exception. It was supposed to have been created in 2008 but was only announced at the end of June. That left the nine-member body just six months to arrange the complex vote which involves a separate registration process, supposed by law to have begun last month.

Commission Disputes

The SPLM says the commission is deadlocked, unable to make key decisions like choosing a secretary-general to manage the budget. If the dispute over the post is not resolved within weeks, many fear time will have run out for the process. The commission has no office yet, and decisions on registration and voting papers have not been made. They will need to be printed and delivered from abroad and distributed to remote areas of south Sudan blocked by rains or lacking roads, adding to delays.

Abyei Referendum

The south Sudan referendum is meant to be held at the same time as a plebsicite in the disputed central oil-producing region of Abyei on whether to join the south or north. However the north-south partners have failed to agree on members of this referendum commission and are deadlocked. A ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court for Arbitration on Abyei's borders has not been demarcated following threats by the nomadic Arab Missiriya in the north. The SPLM says the NCP is settling thousands of Missiriya in northern Abyei to influence the vote. The NCP denies this. But it is looking less likely this vote can happen alongside the southern referendum.

Who can vote?

The law defining who can vote is so complex that even legal experts find it difficult to interpret. Few southern Sudanese are aware of whether they will be able to vote or where. Millions of southerners who live in the north or abroad should be eligible to vote but may not know it. Given the ethnic nature of registration, disputes about who is a southerner and eligible to vote are inevitable. After centuries of inter-marriage, many Sudanese who consider themselves northerners could well be eligible to vote as they have a southern grandparent.

Security

A rise in tribal clashes in the heavily-armed south, mostly over cattle raids or ethnic rivalries, has raised concerns that many people may be unable to vote unless the SPLM-dominated south Sudan government can improve security outside main towns. The police lacks capacity to secure the south and the south Sudan army is still in transition from guerrillas into a regular force. Discipline is a problem. During April elections, the army was accused of intimidating voters and at times taking over counting or entire voting centres. Such actions could seriously affect the credibility of the sensitive referendum.

-Reuters