Is Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna building a new political force?

The embattled Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party Secretary-General, Edwin Sifuna, has in recent weeks shaken Kenya’s political landscape with bold manoeuvres that signal a potential realignment ahead of 2027.

The Nairobi Senator is said to be targeting alliances with like-minded leaders, largely anchored on removing the current regime led by President William Ruto from power in 2027.

In recent weeks, Sifuna’s political net appears to have attracted the attention of the united opposition front. Reports indicate that what began as an internal ODM push has now captured leaders and Members of Parliament from Wiper, the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), Ford Kenya, among others.

The emerging question in political circles is whether Sifuna is working toward strengthening the United Opposition or quietly laying the groundwork for his own political movement, a movement hinged on the spite against the Oburu Oginga-led ODM faction and its perceived dalliance with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Political analysts have also been debating whether Sifuna’s rise aligns with the broader United Opposition agenda, a scenario that could vindicate the Oburu-led faction within ODM.

The faction that also has ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed has consistently claimed that Sifuna is working with outside forces to destabilise the party.

Those “outside forces,” they argue, are part of the United Opposition led by former Deputy President and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, ex-Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa, former National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, and People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua.

The political storm intensified following a blockbuster rally in Kitengela that signaled Sifuna’s refusal to retreat quietly. 

The rally birthed the slogan “Sisi ni Sifuna,” loosely translated as “We are Sifuna.”

The event prompted the pro-Oburu faction to accuse Sifuna of working with Gachagua, popularly referred to as Wamunyoro, to weaken ODM in its traditional strongholds.

Speaking in Kilifi County, the leaders affirmed that Busia Woman Rep Catherine Omanyo is their preferred Secretary-General and urged supporters to back Oburu in ongoing negotiations with President Ruto’s UDA.

Led by Wanga, the leaders addressed rallies in Magarini and Kilifi South, claiming that Sifuna and others opposed to the broad-based arrangement had formed a political vehicle aligned with the opposition.

“Those that you see running around are working with Wamunyoro (Rigathi Gachagua)’s team. The real ODM is here at the Coast today,” Wanga declared.

Rather than retreat, Sifuna has widened his political tent through the Linda Mwananchi platform, a formation bringing together elected leaders, party officials, and activists from diverse political backgrounds.

This cross-party visibility has fueled speculation that Sifuna may be testing the waters for a new national coalition capable of realigning opposition forces ahead of a crucial election season.

Within ODM, he has drawn support from senior figures, including Siaya governor James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Kisii senator Richard Onyonka, Funyula MP Wilberforce Oundo, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi and Suba South MP Omondi Caroli.

In Western Kenya, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Nyamira Senator Erick Okong’o Mogeni have also been associated with the reformist wing.

Others are Bomachoge Borabu MP Barongo Obadiah, Nyaribari Masaba MP Erick Mogeni, Kitutu Masaba MP Clive Gisairo, Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi, political mobiliser Edwin Ng’ong’a and activist Bob Njagi.

Beyond ODM, the narrative has seen cross-party visibility from Mavoko MP Patrick Makau, Kaiti MP Joshua Kimilu and Wundanyi MP Danson Mwashako, all elected on a Wiper ticket, as well as Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga (Ford-Kenya) and Bumula MP Wanami Wamboka from DAP-K.

Analysts argue that consolidating Western Kenya could be central to Sifuna’s strategy.

By working with Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya, he may be courting his Western backyard to build a formidable regional stronghold capable of unsettling both ODM’s establishment and the ruling coalition.

“Courting Natembeya, who has launched the ‘Tawe Movement’ to rally the Luhya community under one political banner, may be part of that calculus,” said Boniface Aluda, a former ODM Kakamega grassroots mobiliser now aligned in the Sifuna camp.

Aluda suggests that the current unfolding political chessboard suggests that, by the 2027 General Election, new factions could emerge to challenge the traditional political order in Western Kenya.

“On one side stand Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, long regarded as the region’s kingpins backing President Ruto’s re-election bid,” he said. 

On the other, Aluda foresees a bold and vocal brigade: Natembeya, Sifuna, Amisi, and Osotsi, whose defiant politics appears to unsettle the old guard.

Natembeya has openly accused Mudavadi and Wetang’ula of holding the region hostage while failing to deliver meaningful development under the broad-based government.

Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya and several Kakamega MPs have also voiced dissatisfaction over Sifuna’s attempted removal.

The stakes became evident when 11 out of 12 Kakamega MPs met President Ruto at State House on Monday in a move some analysts interpret as a panic response ahead of a planned Linda Mwananchi rally in the county this weekend. 

Policy and governance expert Torosterdt Alenga weighed in on the MPs’ claim that they had gone to negotiate for development rather than politics.

“If we are in a place where politicians still go to the President to ask for a road, which is a common good that every country would make roads for their country not really for certain regions, we cannot treat a road as a gift. It’s a sad place,” Mr Alenga said.

Alenga added a broader concern about Kenya’s political identity crisis and why the opposition appears non-functional even after gaining the backing of Sifuna.

“The tragedy that we are walking through is that we do not know who is in government and who is in the opposition,” said Alenga.

Political and policy analyst Odoyo Owidi dismissed the Sifuna uprising as mere political gimmick and momentary excitement among Kenyans.

Speaking on Spice FM, Owidi, however, strongly suggested that Western Kenya, where Sifuna is seeking to establish a stronghold, could have moved out of the ODM party much earlier than this year.