Letter from Mogadishu: Mohamud in surprise visit to Nairobi as Somalia mediators set to arrive

 

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud laid a wreath at the Dhagaxtuur Monument, paying tribute to the enduring legacy and sacrifices of the founding members of the Somali Youth League. [Courtesy, Villa Somalia x]

Last Sunday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made an unexpected visit to Kenya and met with his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto at his private residence in the Kilgoris area of Narok County.

The visit came after the Kenyan president had arrived home from the G7 meeting held in Evian, France, where he represented sub-Saharan Africa at the meeting.

Little information was shared on the discussions the two heads of state held in the quiet, rural set-up, except for a photo of the two riding in a high-end SUV driven by Ruto on his vast farm.

According to official information from the meeting, the two heads of state discussed bilateral issues and mechanisms for regional peace and stabilisation. But no statement or communique was issued after the private talks.

President Ruto recently voiced concerns over the expiration of federal mandates in Mogadishu, warning that parallel or uncoordinated political processes could jeopardise the presence of regional stabilisation forces. 

However, inside sources noted that the Somali president had been summoned to Nairobi to get a brief from some of the leaders at the G7 summit who are concerned by the fast deteriorating political situation in Somalia.

Mohamud’s mandate expired in May this year, and that of the parliament in April. However, parliament hurriedly adopted the country’s transitional constitution, which has been used since 2012 to change the tenure for parliament and the executive to five years instead of four. This allowed the Somali president to remain in power till next May, while parliament has a tenure of office till April.

Early this month, fighting erupted in Mogadishu after the opposition called for protests, leading to the death of several people as the international community, including the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, called on both the Federal Government of Somalia and the opposition to engage in dialogue on the electoral process and the timelines.

Previous attempts to get the two sides to sit down and agree have hit a brick wall, with the government pushing for universal suffrage in the polls to pick MPs and the president, while the opposition wants to use the clan-based indirect election, which has been in use since 2004.

With the country teetering towards chaos, Somalia’s neighbours, especially Kenya, have taken a keen interest in ensuring that Somalia gets back on its feet. The collapse of the regime in Mogadishu could have devastating effects, especially on the fight against the terror group Al-Shabaab.

Kenya is one of the troop contributing countries to the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia and would be severely hit if the fight against Al Shabaab, who make incursions into the country, were affected.

Ruto is said to have been instructed to engage the Somali president with a view to getting him to sit down with the opposition leaders in Mogadishu to agree on the timelines for elections and the process to be adopted.

Regional partners, including East African heads of state, have quietly raised warning flags that prolonged, lone-ranger constitutional amendments could severely fracture Somalia’s defence structures and derail ongoing counterterrorism campaigns. 

According to diplomatic sources, East African leaders are actively pushing for an inclusive, consensus-based electoral process to prevent a governance vacuum that would directly compromise international financial and military support lines.

While Villa Somalia confirmed the broad focus remained on protecting stability across the Horn of Africa, both sides declined to release specific details regarding any formalised bilateral agreements and remained tight-lipped on the discussions between the two leaders.

The surprise meeting between Ruto and Mohamud is expected to culminate in the arrival of international representatives in Nairobi to engage with the Somali leader. Diplomats are urging both the federal executive and dissenting regional state heads to resume immediate round-table negotiations to protect the delicate security gains achieved over the past decade.

Historically, Nairobi has occupied a prominent role in regional mediation, frequently facilitating dialogue among fractured Somali political factions during historical constitutional stalemates. 

Expect Kenya to play a pivotal role in the Somali talks once again in the next few days.

Meanwhile, the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) on Monday approved a supplementary budget of $4.7 million for the 2025/26 financial year and received the proposed EAC budget for 2026/27, the first to be implemented under the bloc’s new five-year development strategy aimed at deepening regional integration and improving livelihoods across member states.

The proposed 2026/27 budget, valued at more than $110 million, is expected to guide implementation of the EAC’s Seventh Development Strategy, which focuses on strengthening economic cooperation, regional connectivity and sustainable development among member states.

The supplementary funding will support a range of regional initiatives, including trade and integration programmes, climate resilience projects, fisheries management, digital innovation and entrepreneurship development.

The session in Arusha marked another milestone in Somalia’s integration into the East African Community (EAC), with the country’s legislators participating in discussions on the bloc’s financial and policy agenda less than three years after Somalia joined the regional grouping.

Somalia’s nine-member delegation was present during the proceedings, underscoring Mogadishu’s efforts to play a more active role in regional institutions and decision-making processes.

The Arusha session drew focus on Somalia’s expanding presence within the Community’s institutions.

Besides Somali lawmakers, Judge Abdiwahid Warsame Abdullahi participated in the proceedings in his capacity as Somalia’s representative on the First Instance Division of the East African Court of Justice.

The simultaneous presence of Somali representatives in both the legislative and judicial organs of the EAC reflects the country’s increasing participation in the bloc’s governance structures since formally joining the organisation in 2023.

Somalia views EAC membership as a key component of its economic diplomacy and regional integration strategy, seeking to expand trade opportunities, attract investment and strengthen ties with neighbouring countries.

Analysts say active participation in regional institutions will be crucial if Somalia is to maximise the economic benefits of membership, particularly as the EAC moves towards deeper market integration and cross-border cooperation in areas ranging from infrastructure and trade to food security and climate adaptation.