Yes, Kenya's future depends on fixing governance today

Youth during a past Gen Z protest in Mombasa. To transform Kenya’s youth bulge into a national asset, we must confront the governance conditions that threaten to squander it. [File, Standard]

Following my recent article on Kenya’s demographic window, several readers asked an important question. If we understand what must be done to convert the youth bulge into a national advantage, why has Kenya not done it? Two recent reports offer sobering insight.

They show our challenge is not lack of ideas. It is a governance environment that undermines investments required to secure our demographic dividend. The Kenya Inequality Report by Oxfam highlights a stark reality. Inequality in Kenya is not accidental. It is the product of policy choices that concentrate opportunity, impose regressive taxation, and limit upward mobility for millions.

When income gaps widen and public resources do not reach sectors that build human capital, the demographic dividend narrows. A youthful population is an asset only when its potential is nurtured. In conditions of rising inequality, it becomes a source of frustration, instability, and wasted opportunity.  The People’s Audit, published by TISA, is even more direct. It documents how misgovernance and corruption drain national resources, inflate public debt, weaken service delivery, and erode institutional credibility. It is difficult to speak of harnessing a demographic window when the systems meant to support youth are weakened by leakages and poor accountability.

The report illustrates how billions allocated to education, health, county development, and youth programmes fail to deliver intended outcomes because the system itself is compromised. No country unlocks a demographic dividend when governance failures choke the fiscal space needed for investment in skills, productivity, infrastructure, and jobs. 

These findings should not discourage us. They should clarify the path ahead. Kenya’s demographic opportunity can still be realised, but only if governance becomes a central pillar of our development strategy. This means three shifts in thinking.  First, we must recognise that the demographic dividend is not simply an economic question. It is a governance project. Countries that successfully harnessed their youth bulges, such as Singapore and South Korea, did so not only through sectoral strategies, but through disciplined, predictable institutions. Their success was rooted in integrity, efficiency, and long-term planning. Demography accelerates progress only where governance supports execution. 

Second, Kenya needs fiscal reforms that prioritise investments in human capital and productive sectors. Both reports show how current patterns of spending, debt, and wastage dilute the impact of public investment. A demographic window cannot be utilised when resources meant for education, TVETs, healthcare, and job creation are diverted or mismanaged. Third, trust must be restored. Young people are not only workers. They are citizens who must believe opportunity is real, merit is rewarded, and institutions are fair.

Kenya’s youth bulge remains a gift, but it is time-bound. To transform it into a national asset, we must confront the governance conditions that threaten to squander it. Our demographic window will not be won by optimism alone. It will be won by integrity, discipline, and institutions strong enough to serve the next generation.

-The writer is a consultant in policy, strategy, and governance. [email protected]