How numbers will affect allocation to counties

Isiolo and Kajiado are headed for a windfall in disbursements of devolution funds after leading the pack on population explosion.

Marsabit, Kiambu and Lamu complete the list of the top five areas with the highest fertility rates, which translates to more money as the population is the single biggest determinant in devolving resources.

Forty five per cent of the cash sent to respective counties is a factor of the population size, according to the sharing formula crafted by the Commission on Revenue Allocation.

Mandera, which was among the areas accused of inflating their numbers in the 2009 census, is bracing for slashed budgets.

At the current levels of allocations for the financial year, Mandera’s allocation would be lower by at least Sh780 million.

It is among the recipients of the biggest share of the devolution billions, based largely on its supposed population tally of one million, huge land mass and high incidence of poverty.

Mandera’s population today has shrunk by almost a fifth, the numbers released on Monday by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) have shown, much to the dismay of its political leadership.

For Nyamira, the share would hardly vary from the Sh5.1 billion as the population was nearly flat over the last decade.

The population in the county rose by a paltry 4,800 people but remains among the most densely populated. It is, however, likely that the population was depressed by high migration to other counties.

Already, controversy has been stirred by the numbers of the population census released by KNBS.

Kakamega, which has been dislodged from the second most-populous after Nairobi a decade ago, is now fourth prompting protests from its leaders who claim the count was not conclusive.

Today, the county has 1.86 million people, a growth of just 200,000 over the decade meaning that the devolved funds would hardly change.

Among the reasons the population of the arid Isiolo County is high is the new attractions such as the planned multi-billion shilling transport corridor linking Lamu port and the Turkana oilfields.

The town has been identified as a potential city on the Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport (Lapsset) project that includes a crude oil pipeline and a railway.

For the increase in numbers, Isiolo’s disbursement from the national government could increase by over 50 per cent.

Kajiado’s population could be benefiting from the spillover of Nairobi with thousands of people commuting to the satellite towns of Ongata Rongai, Ngong and Kitengela, among others.

Relatively affordable land and rents in the various townships of Kajiado is the main attraction for people working in Nairobi, and the arising population growth has turned a huge dividend.

Kiambu, which is also enjoying the population explosion thanks to it proximity to Nairobi, just as Kajiado, is now the second-most populous, and subsequently in pole position to reap in devolution cash.

Marsabit added 150,000 people to its 291,000 in 2009, making it the third fastest growth, which would help it reap in devolved funding from its current allocation of 7.2 billion.

For Turkana, which has been ranked as the poorest region in the country, the allocations would hardly change as the population rose by less than 8 per cent.

From the revenue sharing formula, Turkana will remain in the top league of earners of disbursements from the national government.

Nairobi City would obviously remain the biggest recipient of funding because it has the highest population and is likely to keep growing considering that most Kenyans are seeking the good life and jobs there.

Counties where allocations would rise modestly include Vihiga, Nyandarua and Tharaka Nithi – whose leaders have been shocked by the numbers.