Inside 2026 top Kenyan CEOs crystal ball

Equity Bank CEO Dr. James Mwangi during investor briefing and release of FY 2024 financial results.[Wilberforce Okwiri,Standard] Kenya's private sector captains are projecting a year of robust economic growth and strategic expansion in 2026, driven by improved infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, and accelerating digital adoption. In a series of exclusive year-ahead interviews, top CEOs across the hospitality, real estate, banking, fintech, healthcare and investment expressed strong optimism, citing transformative road projects, easing interest rates, and a resilient domestic market as key tailwinds. The outlook follows a period of sectoral recovery in 2025, with executives now planning major investments in sustainability, technology, and regional integration. From the Naivasha hospitality boom anchored by the new Mau Summit highway, to a resilient banking sector leveraging declining lending rates, and a digital lending market poised to hit $8 billion (Sh1 trillion) in Africa by 2030, business confidence appears firmly on the rise. Our senior economy reporter BRIAN NGUGI sat down with the top 11 executives from various sectors for their crystal ball into the New Year for The Financial Standard. Below are the excerpts of their distilled outlooks for the New Year. Equity Group CEO James Mwangi We have closed the year on a very strong note for the region. Kenya is emerging as a low- and middle-income country with a GDP per capita of over $2,000 (Sh260,000), which is enhancing consumption. When you look at the Kenyan economy, it's actually the most diversified. It's not dependent on one commodity; it's an economy that is driven by services, it's an economy that is driven by technology, it's an economy that is driven by agriculture, and now housing is coming up as a key driver. The world has moved towards private sector-led development, informed by dwindling opportunities for increasing tax revenue and the low headroom for increasing financing through debt. Countries like Kenya, which are up front, have opted for private sector financing through private-public initiatives. The Nairobi expressway is an example. The new energy generation plants are all private sector power-generating plants. So, in principle, the private sector has embraced the opportunity, and this is what might really act as a tailwind for development. Kenya has strengthened its port, is building Lamu, and the government's infrastructure development is enabling the private sector. As we get into the new year, I am optimistic. We have seen inflation coming down and have started seeing interest cuts being consistently done. We have seen the weakening of the US dollar against the currencies of our region, again suggesting that globally the currencies are becoming attractive as an investment destination. The banking sector is ending the year with slow deposit growth, significantly disrupted by alternative asset classes and disintermediated by telecoms in digital lending. Banks have been saddled with a very high non-performing portfolio, averaging 17 per cent, and need to reinvent themselves to be nimble, agile, and resilient. But we have regionalised the banking industry and made Nairobi a regional financial hub. The balance sheets of banks have grown significantly, and corporate financing is now becoming an opportunity in the region. KCB Group CEO Paul Russo Looking at the latest available economic data, the outlook for 2026 is positive, albeit cautiously so. The economy is expected to remain resilient, with growth projected to expand in the mid-five per cent range, supported by stable inflation within the CBK's 2.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent target band and a rejuvenated private sector. This trajectory reflects improving credit demand, a gradual recovery in the private sector output, and an accommodative monetary policy stance aimed at stimulating growth while preserving price stability and exchange rate resilience. That said, downside risks persist - adverse weather conditions, fiscal pressures, and global uncertainties could temper growth if not carefully managed. CBK's continued accommodative monetary policy stance will be relied upon heavily to support sustained economic activity while remaining responsive to these evolving risks. It should be noted that the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to lower levels will remain key for improved market sentiment, which is important for the private sector growth. Paul Russo KCB Group CEO speaking during Q1 financial performance 2024 results briefing.[Wilberforce Okwiri,Standard] Within this macroeconomic context, the banking sector is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with gradual improvement across key indicators. CBK supervisory data and recent MPC communications point to easing, though still elevated, non-performing loan ratios, alongside improving private sector credit growth. While NPL levels remain above historical averages, they have moderated from earlier peaks, and banks continue to maintain adequate provisioning buffers, reflecting both prudent risk management and regulatory oversight. Importantly, private sector credit growth has returned to positive territory, supported by declining lending rates following successive policy rate cuts. As monetary policy transmission improves, this momentum is expected to strengthen further in 2026. In addition, the phased implementation of the Revised Risk-Based Credit Pricing Model, expected to be fully operational by March 1, 2026, should enhance transparency and efficiency in credit pricing, enabling banks to better balance growth and risk. Against this backdrop, KCB Group's growth outlook for 2026 is positive. Stable economic growth prospects across the East African region, improving credit appetite, and a more supportive monetary policy environment are expected to underpin growth in both lending and deposits. We remain aware that elevated bad loans, largely a legacy of the higher interest rate cycle, continue to pose a key sector-wide risk, even as available industry data point to early signs of improvement. To navigate this environment, KCB will continue to strengthen its credit underwriting standards and risk monitoring frameworks, with particular focus on sectors more exposed to default risk. We will further enhance our provisioning practices to safeguard asset quality, while leveraging the Risk-Based Credit Pricing Model to refine pricing strategies that balance competitiveness with disciplined risk-taking. We will capitalise on declining lending rates and improving credit demand, deepen our digital and inclusive financial services to reach underserved segments in line with national financial deepening objectives. Overall, KCB's 2026 growth strategy is anchored on a positive economic environment as well as reinvigorated risk management across our businesses, aligned with the evolving macro-economic environment and the Central Bank of Kenya's monetary policy stance and supervisory expectations. Centum Investment Company CEO James Mworia Kenya's economic growth always peaks in the penultimate year of the General Election calendar, and all indications are that 2026 will follow this cycle. As per World Bank estimates, Kenya's economy expanded by between 4.5 per cent and five per cent in 2025, setting the base for an even stronger growth in 2026. Investment remains the engine of economic growth, linking innovation and enterprise with capital to drive productivity, job creation, and poverty reduction. As Kenya's only NSE-listed investment firm, Centum firmly believes that a strong private sector is central to sustainable, long-term growth. Centum CEO James Mworia.[FILE] From a capital markets perspective, the 2026 outlook presents an excellent opportunity for long-term investors. As macroeconomic stability improves, inflation moderates and fiscal consolidation advances, Kenya is well positioned to attract patient capital seeking yield, diversification and real-asset-backed growth. Investors are increasingly focused on assets with resilient cash flows, export exposure and strong inflation-hedging features. Against this backdrop, our strategy increasingly focuses on using real estate as an anchor to connect businesses to global markets. We see the most scalable opportunities in export-oriented manufacturing and globally-traded services rather than purely domestic demand. This approach is being advanced through the Two Rivers Investment and Financial Innovation Centre Special Economic Zone and the 2,000-acre Vipingo Special Economic Zone, both designed as enterprise and export platforms rather than traditional land developments. Special Economic Zones provide a practical pathway for shifting Kenya towards a manufacturing- and services-led economy, supported by targeted fiscal incentives and efficient regulatory facilitation. Beyond infrastructure, Centum actively supports enterprises from pre-establishment through to operations, acting as a delivery partner to government policy objectives on exports, jobs, and productivity. This model is also being replicated regionally, including in Uganda, through Pearl Marina. Following a disciplined debt reduction programme, Centum enters 2026 with a strengthened balance sheet and renewed capacity to scale quality, cash-generative investments that support export growth and long-term value creation across East Africa. TALA GENERAL MANAGER ANNSTELLA MUMBI All factors considered, the Kenyan economy will most likely grow moderately in 2026. With the Central Bank of Kenya reducing the benchmark interest lending rate, we can expect to see increased economic activity and investments, including hiring by the private sector and MSMEs. The digital lending industry and the broader fintech market in Kenya and, by extension, East Africa, will expand significantly this coming year. As of June 2025, licensed lenders in Kenya were serving over five million Kenyans and disbursing over Sh76.8 billion to the private sector, which is more than the outstanding loans advanced by the microfinance banks. This is an industry projected to hit $8 billion by 2030 in Africa. We are definitely going to be a part of most Kenyan families' stories and their ability to fulfil their everyday needs and grow in their financial lives, including unlocking new income sources. Through our experience serving over 13 million customers across East Africa, Latin America and Asia, we have developed deep insights and found that existing services still don't serve the majority of the population. We are engaging with regulators across our markets to ensure that the pace of innovation is aligned with regulatory framework developments. Moving into 2026, we are keen on further strengthening Tala InSight, the company's patent-pending AI model, to increase access and personalisation even further. GulfCap Real Estate CEO Chris Ochieng' Kenya's real estate sector experienced significant turbulence in 2024, characterised by slow market uptake, disruptions linked to national demonstrations, elevated taxes on construction inputs, high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressure. By contrast, 2025 marked a period of market stabilisation, laying the foundation for renewed sector momentum. The sector is expected to regain momentum with GDP contribution projected to rise to 10 per cent by the end of 2026, infrastructure investment, progressive policies under the Affordable Housing Programme and the expansion of the UN operational base in Kenya. GulfCap Real Estate remains firmly aligned with creating over 5,000 direct and indirect jobs within its supply chain. Being the largest developer of affordable housing, it anticipates a 15-20 per cent growth across its development portfolio. The company has also transitioned into a full turnkey developer, consolidating the entire real estate value chain under one umbrella. We are focused on the challenges and sector-wide risks, including political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 polls, elevated financing costs, an increase in costs for materials and inputs, forex risks, and delays in critical infrastructure linkages. Karmel Resort Naivasha founder and CEO Alex Mugo Njoroge One of the most transformative developments we anticipate is the impact of the Mau Summit-Naivasha Highway. Improved road connectivity from Western Kenya and the wider Rift Valley will significantly reduce travel time to Naivasha, opening the destination to new leisure travellers, conference groups, and transit guests. This isn't just about shorter travel times-it's about creating a seamless transition. We envision a guest departing Nairobi after work and arriving in our gardens for a sundowner, their journey from urban stress to tranquillity condensed into a single, effortless drive. This enhanced access strengthens Naivasha's position as a leading domestic tourism hub and creates new opportunities for sustainable hospitality growth. As we look ahead to 2026, I am optimistic about the future of the hospitality industry in Naivasha. The sector is entering a period of renewed opportunity, driven by infrastructure development, a resilient domestic tourism market, and a growing demand for meaningful, experience-driven travel. Looking forward, we expect domestic tourism to remain the strongest driver of growth in 2026. Kenyan travellers are increasingly choosing destinations that offer value, emotional connection, and memorable experiences. AAR Hospital CEO Dr Aysha Edwards The Kenyan health sector is on the cusp of a major transformation, driven by the government-led Universal Health Coverage (UHC) initiative. The private sector is a key partner in delivering the success of the UHC, whose underlying philosophy is protecting patients' dignity and strengthening quality and efficiency across Kenya's healthcare system. Underpinned by the Social Health Authority (SHA) social insurance cover, the initiative is intended to give all Kenyans access to professional healthcare. AAR Hospital in 2025 continued to implement transformative projects that strengthened patient safety, elevated the quality of care and improved operational efficiency through streamlined, cost-effective service delivery. We recognise that better treatment outcomes demand skilled personnel, reliable equipment and blood supplies, and strong infection control. Significant investments in modern equipment, clinical excellence, and integrated digital systems that uphold patient safety and quality of care have put us in a vantage position to offer the best care possible to our clients in 2026 and far beyond. Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company Ltd Ag MD Martin Nang'ole Kenya's water and sanitation sector will remain a critical driver of economic productivity in 2026, especially as Nairobi continues to expand as the region's commercial capital. Rising demand for reliable water services presents both pressure on existing networks and an opportunity for us to continue to modernise Nairobi Water will continue positioning itself as a smart utility for a smart city, deepening its investment in technology to improve efficiency, reduce losses and enhance customer convenience. Our ongoing digital transformation covering smart metering, automated leak detection, billing and end-to-end online customer onboarding is already improving operational performance and strengthening accountability. This digital shift is also directly contributing to Nairobi's ease of doing business, particularly for real estate developers, commercial enterprises and new investors seeking faster, transparent and predictable water connection approvals. Looking ahead to 2026, reducing non-revenue water and ensuring supply reliability will remain top priorities. Investment in modern infrastructure and technology-driven operations will be central to securing Nairobi's long term resilience. Kenya Private Sector Alliance CEO Carole Kariuki Business is optimistic about next year as the global trade order settles after the policy changes in the US. We have many investors looking into Kenya in the different sectors, both local and foreign. We are grateful that the government is looking at the regulatory environment and working to see how regulators can focus on facilitating business growth. The expansion of infrastructure is most welcome to ease logistics, and hoping whether it's trunk roads, rail or small roads, the focus is to lead to markets, to factories and to open areas with resources untapped. The political stability in a region that is becoming more volatile makes Kenya the country of choice for investors. Looking forward to more knowledge transfer and investments locally, especially with the new resource race in critical minerals and data to fuel the tech revolution, than what oil, gold, diamonds and others that fueled the Industrial Revolution benefited Africa. Diamond Trust Bank Kenya, USIU- Africa, Tropikal Brands Afrika Ltd, Oxygene Marketing and Communication Chairman Linus Gitahi I am reasonably confident about the outlook for Kenya and the broader East African economy in 2026. Kenya's GDP is projected to grow at around five per cent, aligning with consensus forecasts from institutions like Focus Economics and the World Bank, driven by resilient private consumption, easing credit conditions, and recovering sectors such as services and agriculture. The region is expected to lead African growth, with East Africa averaging close to six per cent according to the African Development Bank, supported by strong performances in neighbouring countries like Uganda and Tanzania. A key positive development is the stabilisation of the Kenyan shilling against the US Dollar at around Sh129 to Sh130, reflecting improved foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy effectiveness, which should bolster investor confidence and reduce import costs. Additionally, the government's ongoing efforts to clear pending bills-having already settled significant amounts in the road sector and beyond-will enhance cash circulation, ease liquidity pressures on businesses, and stimulate economic activity. However, the continued entrenchment of good governance reforms, including performance-based public sector management, anti-corruption measures, and institutional accountability, remains crucial to sustaining this momentum and unlocking Kenya's full potential for a prosperous 2026.

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