How to take advantage of geopolitical changes

The world is in the middle of a significant power shift. For about two centuries, Europe and its offshoots dominated the global landscape. That is changing fast. A combination of the rise of China and other parts of the developing world and the singular failure of leadership in the West have led to the current situation. But while it is easy to pinpoint causes of the current shifts in the global economic, military and political centres of gravity, the consequences may prove harder to predict. And it is precisely because of the fact that the outcomes are unpredictable that responsible leaders should seek to ensure their countries stand to reap the positive consequences of these global shifts. This observation applies to both the domestic and regional levels.

Consider the example of trade and related infrastructure. Much has been written about how China and India are the next engines of global development; and how being plugged into these markets is the surefire way to succeed economically over the next decade. Much of it is also true. However, there is something to be said about preserving the autonomy of states dealing with these two rising powers. In other words, even though they may only ever get to exercise their agency while in tight corners, African leaders should try their best to get the most out for their citizens out of any trade agreements signed with either China or India. That means being in a position to play these two rising powers against each other in order to get the best deal for African citizens.

At the same time, African governments must not completely abandon the old markets of Europe and the more dynamic markets of the Americas. These markets are not only still relevant globally, but they also have significantly more disposable income than most people in other regions of the world. So instead of only focusing on China, policymakers in Africa should be thinking about means of unlocking markets in these places that have begun to experience decline. These observations may seem obvious but they are not. Many African governments have chosen to foolishly put all their eggs in one basket – betting that Chinese loans and technical assistance will lift their citizens out of poverty. This is a losing strategy. Entirely submitting to the Chinese is more likely to result in a culture of dependency than a significant reduction in poverty rates.

Notice that when China engages with African states, it does so conditionally on what it considers its key priorities. The same goes with India. And furthermore, these priorities may not always be aligned with the needs of African states. It is for this reason that African governments must always seek to engage with China, India, or any other rising power on their own terms. The fact of the matter is that these countries need the collective support of African countries almost as much as African countries need their economic assistance. Figuring out how to strategically exploit this truth to maximum effect should be the one thing that keeps policymakers awake at night. Failure to do so will mean yet more decades wasted in the name of merely being a playground for old and rising powers.

Here in Kenya, it is extremely important that we ensure that our core interests inform our engagements with China, India, or any other rising powers. This will require doing more than hosting high-level delegations and signing bilateral commitments. It means coming up with dynamic policies that will allow us to engage the rest of the world in our own terms, at least to the extent that this is possible. China, India, or any other country for that matter, do not engage with Kenya merely for altruistic reasons. They do so to take care of the core state interests. As a corollary, we should not let friendship get in the way of doing business and taking care of our state interests.