Ol Kalou decides: The making of Ruto-Gachagua fight for Mt Kenya supremacy

Muchina Nyaga of the UDA party and Sammy Kamau Ngotho of the DCP party will be contesting in the Ol Kalou by-election. [Courtesy]

The tension-riddled Ol Kalou Parliamentary by-elections is transforming into a high-stakes duel pitting President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party against former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) and one with far reaching consequences ahead of the 2027 elections.

 Triggered by the death of Jubilee party MP David Kiaraho, the mini-poll has morphed into a  high-octane battle for the control of Mt Kenya’s political leadership and is already proving to be a rehearsal for the forthcoming general elections.

 With just 13 days to the mini-poll, a win for the Gachagua-led DCP party would cement his status as the undisputed regional kingpin and serve as a national launching pad for the political outfit that seeks to relegate President William Ruto to a one-term Presidency.

 Conversely, a win for President Ruto’s UDA Party would counter claims that he has lost grip of the vote-rich region that was central to his 2022 electoral victory and also validate his decision to impeach Gachagua. A loss for Ruto would however disintegrate his already fractured support from the region and give impetus to a push by the united opposition to send him packing come next year.

 The ruling UDA party has already hit the ground running and launched a campaign blitz characterized by a series of projects meant to woo the electorate. It is relying on a mixed bag of economic goodies to transform the lives of Ol Kalou residents, aggressive ground mobilization efforts led by leaders such as Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, former CS Moses Kuria, and Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri as well as a heavy war chest to secure the now vacant parliamentary seat.

 In the recent past, President Ruto’s administration has unveiled development projects such as a new university campus expected to serve thousands of students from Nyandarua county and its neighbors.

 It has also established Nyandarua’s land registry in Ol Kalou and issued out more than 2,700 title deeds to residents, seeking to end the residents’ years-long treacherous journey to neighbouring counties to access the land ownership documents.

 To sweeten the deal, the government has commissioned markets to house traders and commenced on roads and electricity connectivity projects coupled with youth and women empowerment programmes.

 It is these projects that the Kenya Kwanza administration is capitalizing on to woo the masses and dilute the anti-government resentment dissent that has creeped into the region. UDA allies have also used the launch of these projects to portray President Ruto as a listening and delivering president.

 “Development will not be brought about by the opposition. There is no road that has been built by the opposition, no hospital opened by the opposition and there will be no land registry to be opened by the opposition,” said Lands PS Nixon Korir during the launch of the Nyandarua land registry in Ol Kalou on June 19.

 And speaking during the handover of the first phase of the university project, Lands Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome defended the project from claims that it was an inducement to sway the electorate.

“This is a promise made by this government since Nyandarua is the only county in the Mt. Kenya region that has no university," stated Wahome.

 Sources within UDA also reveal that the party has engineered a  two-pronged approach of sponsoring independent candidates to join the race in a bid to scatter the votes and ultimately triggering another by-election in one of its strongholds should they lose in the Ol kalou mini-poll. 

Pundits however argue that despite the unprecedented blitz, a range of factors will make it an uphill task for UDA to clinch the Ol Kalou seat. Key among them is that the residents of Nyandarua, considered to be the long-forgotten Mt Kenya region, perceive the deployed projects as a scheme to buy their loyalty.

 Political analyst Charles Munyui faults the use of project billions and violence by the state to achieve political expediency in the by-election, rather than focusing on addressing issues afflicting Kenyans as a whole.

 “There is the bigger picture that the government doesn’t see. It doesn’t realize that unless the health system is working, unless a young man gets access to education without struggling, jobs are available to the youth and opulence from government officials is seen to be diminishing, then these one-off projects will not work because everyone sees to what end they are being done,” states Munyui.

 “There are certain things that the government needs to do to have acceptability on their part from the public,” he adds.

 Recently, Gatanga MP Edward Muriu also hit out at the government’s accelerated development efforts in Ol Kalou, residents had already made up their minds and would vote based on leadership and the need for change rather than the goodies. 

MP Muriu, who is Gachagua’s ally and who is leading DCP campaigns in Olkalou, insisted that no amount of state projects would sway the electorate.  

 “You can build a city of gold in Ol-Kalou, but it will not change the will of the people," Muriu said.

 Former DP Rigathi Gachagua’s ouster also continues to fuel a profound sense of political betrayal across Nyandarua county, further making it a herculean task for UDA to counter.

The sympathy factor has contributed to DCP party candidate Sammy Ngotho’s popularity, evidenced during the party primaries.  

 During the exercise held in May, Ngotho secured the party ticket after garnering 12,957 votes, defeating his closest challenger, Paul Waiganjo, who secured 4,978 votes. Waiganjo has since decamped to UDA. 

Other candidates cleared by IEBC to contest for the seat include Samuel Muchina Nyagah (UDA), Timothy Kamau (People’s Renaissance Movement) Edwin Muchiri (PNU), Wilson Kigwa (Jubilee), Stephen Wanyoike (NLP), Rachael Njoroge (PDP), Edward Mwaniki (Kenya Moja Movement), and Abdifatah Hussein (Federal Party of Kenya).

 Then there is the resilient united opposition front that has rallied prominent Mt Kenya leaders and allied parties to actively coalesce around the DCP candidate and lead grassroots mobilization efforts.

 The coalition comprising DCP, Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party (PLP), former CS Eugene Wamalwa’s Democratic Action Party Kenya (DAP-K), former Attorney General Justin Muturi’s

Democratic Party (DP) and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper party noted that it had reached a consensus to rally behind Ngotho. 

Nyandarua Senator John Methu, Former Nairobi MP Maina Kamanda, Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia and Kiambu Senator Karungu Thangwa have also actively led the charge in drumming up support for Ngotho. To achieve this, they have tapped the influence of acclaimed Kikuyu artistes such as Samidoh, Waithaka Wa Jane and other influential figures.

 Critics however argue that Gachagua’s absence from the campaigns could hand UDA a strategic advantage on the ground. Notably, the DCP leader has announced a 45-day political conclave at his Wamunyoro residence to consult widely before the opposition embarks on selecting its flag bearer.

 “Gachagua’s retreat to Wamunyoro when the campaigns are ongoing is an early admission of defeat. He knows that he is going to lose Ol Kalou...politics is all about perception. He has lost all the parliamentary by-elections and this one is at his core because he says he commands the region. His retreat is to have an excuse for if DCP loses the seat,” said Joe Mutambu, Former MP, Mwingi Central.

 Embakasi North James Gakuya however observed that even without Gachagua on the campaign trail, DCP would come out victorious thanks to the various grassroots efforts already in play.