Lack of tact ails Orange party in fight to survive

By OSCAR OBONYO

Irish celebrated poet Oscar Wilde might well have had Kenya’s Orange Democratic Movement in mind when he stated, "confidence is good but overconfidence always sinks the ship".

ODM’s vessel might not have sank just yet, but the latest events within the party, especially its approach to by-elections, has been punctuated by overconfidence and lack of tact.

"Although ODM remains the most popular political party, it has exhibited a rather lackluster approach to competitive politics. The Ikolomani instance, like others before, is a case of mismanagement of opportunity," says Prof Amukowa Anangwe, a political science lecturer at the University of Dodoma, Tanzania.

While rival parties, including Party of National Unity, have chosen to consolidate efforts by collaborating with the rest, ODM has opted for the exact opposite — going it solo and even fighting off smaller entities like New Ford-Kenya that are begging for partnership.

It is this kind of political arrogance, for instance, that compelled Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale to stage a spirited campaign battle that has left the giant Orange party with egg on the face.

Given no chance

Khalwale’s New Ford-Kenya is not the first party to unsuccessfully seek co-operation with ODM. In the run-up to the 2007 General Election, Kaddu leader Cyrus Jirongo even called a press conference to state that his outfit would support Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s presidential bid.

But Jirongo’s gesture was quietly snubbed and after attending a few ODM campaign rallies where he was hardly recognised or given a chance to speak, the Lugari MP eased his way out.

Others ignored by ODM party functionaries include South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya and Makadara’s Kioko Mbuvi, alias "Sonko", who initially sought the ODM party ticket but were denied the chance.

Yussuf Hassan, the PNU aspirant in Kamukunji was also in contention in 2007 but ODM opted to give a direct ticket to Ibrahim Ahmed, forcing Hassan to vie on an ODM-Kenya ticket. In all instances, except in the yet-to-be held Kamukunji polls, ODM has denied a chance the better and popular candidate, who has eventually gone on to win.

In Ikolomani’s instance, the party believably caved in to a single persuasion from first-term MP Justus Kizito.

A beneficiary of a by-election himself, the Shinyalu legislator is said to have persuaded a reluctant ODM leadership to flex political muscle in the neighbouring Ikolomani constituency.

A week after House Speaker Kenneth Marende declared his seat vacant, Khalwale confided to The Standard On Sunday that he was "talking to ODM" with a view to reclaiming the seat.

All is well

And on the eve of ODM’s first rally in Kakamega since this development, Khalwale told this writer "all is well" and that he was on the ground leading preparations "ahead of our big rally".

"I am in touch with ODM’s top leadership and I can assure you everything is moving according to plan. I do not wish to pre-empt anything, but let us wait for the major statement tomorrow," he said.

But the anticipated statement was never to be as the ODM event attended by the party’s top brass, including Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Musalia Mudavadi, instead installed Bernard Shinali as its flag bearer.

Party’s support

As Planning minister Wycliffe Oparanya would also later confirm during the campaigns, Khalwale dearly wanted the party’s support.

"It is true at some point he even came to my office seeking my help to recapture Ikolomani. But I told him the only option was for him to defect to ODM," Oparanya said last week.

Earlier, an optimistic Khalwale had indicated to The Standard On Sunday that he had opted to identify with ODM because "we think alike and have all along complemented each other in fighting impunity".

Then the MP was wary of the PNU brigade, especially after spearheading vote of no confidence Motions against Trade minister Amos Kimunya and former Agriculture minister William Ruto, now allied to PNU.

Conceding Khalwale is ideologically close to ODM, Youth and Sports minister Paul Otuoma, who alongside Mudavadi led the party’s campaign, says the party nonetheless took a position to field another candidate and that ultimately changed the game plan.

"Khalwale is my good friend as he is to many other ODM allied legislators. But because he is a member of a rival party and we were in political competition, we set out to vanquish him," says the Funyula MP.

Latest case

But Anangwe observes that national offices tend to greatly hurt their own campaigns by overshadowing their candidate. In the latest case, he says, it was a Khalwale versus ODM and not Shinali battle.

"ODM does not seem to plan well for by-elections and its candidates, in particular, are absolutely dependent on national office leaders," he says.

Concurs Adams Oloo, head of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Nairobi: "By-elections are solely about local issues, interests and local leadership. In Ikolomani’s instance, Khalwale the individual struck the right cord as opposed to ODM, the amorphous entity."

The don explains that by-elections have peculiar dynamics as voters consider various aspects including clan factors and individual strengths, as was obviously the case in Ikolomani.

"Nonetheless, it is not correct to conclude that the Orange party has lost its popularity. The accurate deduction is that the party has not gained any new ground in by-elections," says Dr Oloo.