Kalonzo walks tightrope in Kibaki succession quest

By Stephen Makabila

After a failed shuttle diplomacy, a public attack by First Lady Lucy Kibaki last week over Wikileaks and tribulations of his key political allies over the ICC cases, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is treading on a tricky political path.

As the Vice-President Kalonzo is a heart-beat away from the presidency but equally far from it depending on the political dynamics in next year’s election.

While there are those who feel Kalozo messed up his chances by leading the quest for deferral of the ICC cases, some feel Kalonzo has a chance politically and could be a player to watch as the succession unfolds.

Interviews with close Kalonzo allies revealed he is focused on forging an alliance with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa.

Like-minded leaders

"The alliance is to bring like-minded leaders together and it is to be expanded further to cover all regions. The issue of who among these leaders will be the torchbearer in 2012 is yet to be seriously addressed," said Kalonzo’s Personal Assistant Kaplich Barsito.

Barsito argues Kalonzo’s absence from rallies organised by his allies in recent weeks was a tactical retreat.

During a rally in Githunguri, Kiambu County on Friday, Uhuru and Ruto said they will work with Kalonzo to block Prime Minister Raila Odinga out of State House.

Kagwanja yesterday told The Standard on Sunday that ‘like minded leaders’ who have joined the alliance on their own terms, include Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Tourism Minister Najib Balala, former Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang’ula, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa and Dujis MP Aden Duale.

ICC cases

He revealed there have been concerted efforts to bring former minister and Gichugi MP Martha Karua on board but she has resisted the attempts.

Karua has since her resignation from the Cabinet maintained she would be on the presidential ballot paper come 2012.

Uhuru and Ruto are facing ICC cases and will appear in Court on April 7 and 8 respectively at The Hague. Kagwanja said the alliance will hold competitive nominations and whoever emerges winner will be supported by the others.

"If there are any complications brought about by The Hague issue, Uhuru and Ruto hold the largest voting blocs in this axis, that is Central and Rift Valley, and whoever they give their nod may be the front-runner," added Kagwanja.

United States International University lecturer Prof Munene Macharia, feels Kalonzo has been losing out politically. Macharia said there are some in PNU who view Kalonzo as a leader who cannot make things move.

"Kalonzo has a good chance in the succession politics given he is the deputy to the president. However, he should re-engineer himself. He should be forceful," added Macharia. Political observers argue shuttle diplomacy has portrayed Kalonzo as an enemy of the public, while in the inner circles of power as one who failed to successfully execute " a presidential assignment".

It’s also believed the powerful group around Kibaki, and especially those who have First Lad Lucy Kibak’s ear, could have used her to tackle Kalonzo through the public attack over Wikileaks.

That the President failed to comment or defend his deputy has left many guessing on his chances in the succession.