Ruto, Raila focus on counties that could decide who succeeds Uhuru

Deputy President William Ruto when he shook hands with Azimo la Umoja Presidential candidate Raila Odinga during an IEBC stakeholder meeting. [Collins Kweyu, Standard]

The campaign season is on the home stretch, with roughly two weeks before Kenyans go to the polls.

The contestants are not slowing down, but ramping up campaigns, fighting to cover as much ground as they can.

Even as the top contenders camp in swing vote regions, they are equally consolidating perceived strongholds, deploying their respective allies.

Deputy President Dr William Ruto’s running mate Rigathi Gachagua has been camping in Mt Kenya region, home to some 5.8 million voters. The same has been the case for Martha Karua, Raila Odinga’s running mate.

While Dr Ruto hopes to match President Uhuru Kenyatta’s numbers in Mt Kenya in the 2013 and 2017 elections, Mr Odinga, the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya presidential candidate, is keen on shrinking the DP’s perceived lead in the region.

In the nullified 2017 election, President Kenyatta secured a nearly 3.8 million gap against Mr Odinga in the region. It would be the most significant contributor to the 1.4 million gap between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s final tallies in the invalidated election.

Mr Odinga knows reducing the gap in Mt Kenya could see him enjoy an advantage against the DP, who is vying on UDA ticket.

In 2017, up to 83 per cent of Mt Kenya’s registered voters cast the ballot. A similar turnout could see some 4.8 million votes from the region on August 9. Various opinion polls show the Azimio leader could get an upward of 24 per cent of the Mt Kenya vote. Such a performance could see Mr Odinga bag in excess of a million votes, detrimental to Dr Ruto’s chances of clinching the presidency.

Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria is optimistic that Mr Odinga will reap big in Mt Kenya.

“Raila will surprise most people in Mt Kenya by getting more than 30 per cent of the votes. There’s a huge number of Mt Kenya residents who feel safe with Raila Odinga as president. My numbers and Martha Karua’s supporters are enough for Baba in Mt Kenya. We represent the future of Kikuyu political leadership,” he said.

But Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata says: “Raila will lose terribly in the mountain. This government has caused suffering in the region and no amount of persuasion will deliver any vote to him.”

But other regions have their contributions, too, hence the deployment of some “kingpins” to their respective regions. Dr Ruto, for instance, has his allies from western Kenya – ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula – doing groundwork in the region that commands some 2.6 million votes. Both have a target to deliver 70 per cent of the Western vote.

Opinion polls have suggested that Raila is still ahead in the region, but his lead has shrunk since 2017 when he won nearly 80 per cent of the vote. In Bungoma, for instance, pollsters have placed Dr Ruto ahead.

The Azimio presidential candidate, on the other hand, has entrusted a team led by Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya to ensure the region that has solidly backed his previous bids does so one more time.

And so Dr Ruto is trying to do in Western what Mr Odinga is attempting in Mt Kenya – reap as many votes as possible, shrinking either’s head start. The DP is employing the same strategy at the Coast, where he is banking on the support of governors Amason Kingi (Kilifi) and Salim Mvurya (Kwale).

To counter Dr Ruto’s assault, Mr Odinga has deployed a team led by Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho to keep his traditional base that is worth nearly 2 million votes intact.

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka is Raila’s point man in the Lower Eastern region. The DP intends to grab some 1.7 million votes from the region.

Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua said Dr Ruto had made significant strides in Ukambani. “Currently, four out of every five Ukambani voter says they support William Ruto. There are many other silent supporters. Current polls show that over 40 per cent of Ukambani supports Ruto and Kenya Kwanza, and the number is rising,” he said.

“Ruto’s message, the Kenya Kwanza manifesto and the current political and economic atmosphere are favouring Ruto in Ukambani. Kambas want to be in government and feel it is time they changed their hard-line stance,” he said.

Dr Mutua, tasked with delivering a 35 per cent target of the Lower Eastern vote to Ruto, says failure by Mr Odinga to pick Kalonzo as his running mate had an effect in Ukambani. “The fact that Kalonzo is not Raila’s running mate and that they also have their own, me, in Ruto’s camp, has made Ruto an easier sell,” he said.

Makueni MP Dan Maanzo has expressed confidence that Azimio would carry the day in Ukambani. “We will deliver Ukambani. We are currently at 85 per cent support, heading to 90,” he said.

Gained ground

He, however, admitted that Ruto had gained ground in the region. “Ruto had gotten in early through the churches, but we are wiping him off through the churches as well. Kalonzo will clean up Ruto completely in the two weeks left.”

Mr Maanzo said having the Wiper party leader was enough to sway voters, but raised concern that former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko’s fate in the hands of the Supreme Court had made some voters “unhappy”. “Azimio needs to work to change perceptions around the Sonko subject”.

He warned that despite Mr Odinga winning the overall vote in Ukambani, Ruto’s UDA could clinch many seats in the region owing to sibling rivalry within Azimio. “In some elections, we have four candidates facing a UDA one who would ordinarily do well as an independent,” he said.

Just as Mr Odinga’s forays in Mt Kenya will hurt Dr Ruto’s prospects of succeeding Mr Kenyatta, the DP’s entry into Mr Odinga’s perceived strongholds of Coast, Western and Lower Eastern gives the Azimio leader an equally arduous task.

The overall effect depends, significantly, on how much one is able to eat into their opponent’s strongholds.

There are however other dynamics such as the candidates’ performance in areas considered swing regions, that will alter the race.