How second tier powers jostle for dominance

There are signs that while three powers remain dominant at the geopolitical top, several other powers are struggling to occupy or remain in the second tier slot. Those in the top tier are the United States whose hegemonic global presence is eroding, Russia, recuperating from the disasters of post-Soviet realities, and Communist China whose apparent “grand strategy” is to draw the rest of the world to the middle kingdom. Before 2016, the European Union could have fitted in the top tier, but it is fragmenting from within.

Leading EU components; Britain, France, and Germany are pale shades of their former selves and have slid to second tier. Britain had stayed out of currency and Schengen visa regimes and then in 2016 voted BREXIT. French leader Emmanuel Macron imagines himself an alternative world leader to Donald Trump but he falls short. Macron accuses Africans of civilizational inadequacy because they like producing babies.

French citizens, mainly young, rejected his dreams, and turned on him in the streets of Paris. He found escape in visiting French troops in Chad, one of the pliant former French colonies where “the colonial pact” still does wonders.

Germany, economically big, is more concerned with the union than other members. Its leader, Angela Merkel, experienced rough times in East Germany and is the true believer in the EU. She makes Germany set EU policies and financially subsidize the laggard just to keep the EU going. Thus separated, none of the three EU big ones can measure up to the US, Russia, or China.

Capture power

As the Euros decline, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are climbing the ladder to the second tier of global power plays. Both countries have ambitious men in Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Mohammad bin Salmon as leaders. Erdogan seems to be in competition with leaders in the Turkish past and wants to link with the Seljuk Turk Battle of Manzikert victory over the Christian Byzantians in 1071, which led to the creation of the Ottoman Empire.

His “neo-Ottoman” dream would surpass Mustapha Kemal Ataturk and would dwarf any other Turk. He excessively worries about the international presence of Sufi cleric Fethulah Gulen who helped him capture power.

After they fell apart, Erdogan tried to close Gulen’s world-wide Hizmet educational system and fell flat. He, however, successfully entered Somalia. He established in Mogadishu the “largest embassy in the world”, a large hospital, and the largest overseas military base where Turks train the Somali on military tactics as well as “history and maths”, probably Ottoman history. This makes Somalia the likely southern end of “neo-Ottomanism”.

Neo-Ottoman grandeur, however, has to contend with the competing desires of Saudi Arabia, which used to be part of the Ottoman Empire, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is Erdogan’s counterpart. Erdogan would like to have the same influence on American policy makers as the Saudis but he falls short. The two countries, for different reasons, keep bumping into each other in different arenas.

Nuclear deal

In Syria, both fuel the civil war. Erdogan probably sees recovered “Ottoman” territory; MbS seeks to checkmate Iran. Given that neither is an example of exemplary governance, each sounded strange calling for the ouster of Syrian President Bashir Assad on account of atrocious rule. The United States and the Euros, in launching their attacks on Syria, adopted the same line of argument.

Besides oil, Saudi rivalry with Iran captivates American officialdom, which then makes Washington appear beholden to Riyath. Although Barack Obama seemed to follow the Saudis on Syria, the Saudi were unhappy with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that fitted the views of incoming US President Trump. Under MbS, Saudi Arabia has virtually replaced Egypt as leader in the Arab world and has ventured into little imperial wars in Yemen and Lebanon.

It also punished Qatar, with its Doha based Al Jazeerah global television network, for seemingly punching above its geopolitical weight. The Jamal Kashoggi murder in Istanbul exposed a three way geopolitical murkiness. While Erdogan blamed MbS, Trump refused to blame MbS because US interest would not allow him. This made Saudi Arabia look powerful.

Another country that could rise to the second tier is Brazil. After the failure of 21st Century Socialism, it plummeted economically and politically and seemed to lack vibrancy.

This might change with the new president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is baptized the “Donald Trump of Brazil” and might capture the same world imagination as Erdogan, MbS, or Trump.

Prof Munene teaches History and International Relations at USIU. [email protected]