What could stop Ruto from realising his 2022 presidency quest

To credit the majority of Kenyan voters with elective intelligence is to be overly polite. This is because they have developed a warped sense of logic that over the years has seen them acquire a preference for political chaff over wheat. This happens to be a product of a political system designed to keep the masses in poverty, effectively turning them into manipulable voting machines.

Every five years we go through the motions of campaigns, ostensibly to get the best leaders from an array of individuals who peddle lies with such ease it is not a wonder they fool quite a number into casting their votes for them. Every year we decry chicanery in leadership, but still end up electing the same con artists.

A principled voter is a rarity in a country where people live from hand to mouth. This is even more pronounced in a country where politicians behave like demigods. They are worshiped for the measly handouts they imperiously dish out to hungry constituents.

So brazen are elected members of parliament that when they gang up to rob the public till through raises in their salaries and perks, they shamelessly demand to know how anybody expects them to survive when all their money goes to pay for funerals, contributions to development projects and so forth within their respective constituencies.

The debates

There have been discourses across the country following the famous (or is it infamous?) handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga. Most of the discussion is centred on the 2022 succession politics.

While Deputy President William Ruto’s camp is seeing apparitions everywhere in relation to the 2022 presidency - and that is because they vaingloriously assumed Ruto’s ascendancy to the throne was fait accompli - the folly of banking on trust alone for anything so substantial is underscored.

From the Ruto camp’s perspective, forces opposed to him are ganging up to throw the spanner in the works of their idol. In the heat of the 2017 campaigns, Ruto’s proclamations and demeanor gave the impression his becoming Kenya’s president in 2022 was a foregone conclusion, as if Kenya was a dynasty. Then when the real ‘dynasties’ stirred, he became apprehensive. By now, Ruto must have realised he is not standing on firm ground. The Siamese twins comportment displayed by the UhuRuto duo- from wearing similar outfits, appearing in public together at every event, photo shoots and going everywhere together- is gone.

Election losers in central Kenya, the region that Ruto banks on for a reciprocal vote, are said to be ganging up and blaming him for their losses. A notable thing is that they are not your ordinary run-of-the-mill politicians; they have the money. They are immensely influential, and those attributes are the real determiners.

The question that comes to mind even as Ruto supporters press the panic button is whether Central Kenya will reciprocally vote for him in 2022. A colleague avers that the common man in Central Kenya, the one we know does not apply logic when confronted with a choice because money determines his choices, believes Uhuru Kenyatta owes his presidency to Ruto. But he admits that the region’s elite have other plans, if not reservations about Ruto.

The deceit

In Ruto’s own Rift Valley backyard, rebellion is snowballing and he can only ignore it at great cost to himself. Forces that could easily devour him and derail his projections for 2022 are waking up. Of the so-called dynasties, one is right at his doorstep.

There is the argument that the coming together of the dynasties will hand Ruto sympathy votes, proponents of which try to make comparison to the 2002 dynamics when President Moi tried to hand over the baton to Kenyatta and the country rebelled.

What they conveniently fail to acknowledge is that the rebellion was led by Raila Odinga. His ‘Kibaki tosha’ proclamation sealed Uhuru’s fate then. Today, Raila has adroitly changed the discussions around the country, with him at the center of it all.

Given Ruto’s propensity to burn bridges, who in his camp will champion his cause? More importantly, who are Ruto’s true friends? Do they possess political and financial muscles to flex in his defense against the dynasties and Rutophobics? And while aggrieved leaders from the Luhya nation believe they have a godsend chance to get even with Raila, their whining only serves to propagate Raila’s agenda by heightening curiosity among those who may not be aware of the new developments. The leaders lack guile and tact.

That is how they have consistently boxed themselves into a corner year in, year out. It is after they will have run out of bile against him that Raila will give them a tackle. If I know the Luhya nation, it will overwhelmingly vote with Raila should it come to a referendum.

Mr Chagema is a Correspondent at The [email protected]