Are NASA co-principals biggest losers for skipping oath?

The swearing-in of Opposition leader Raila Odinga without his running mate has triggered heated debate.

Kenyans are asking who between Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi is the biggest political loser after they both skipped the event.

While some leaders and political analysts say Kalonzo lost the biggest chance to inherit Raila’s political base, others feel Mudavadi squandered the chance of having Nyanza and Western regions on his side.

Both Kalonzo and Mudavadi are eyeing State House in future and should be strategising how to consolidate their support base as well as making inroads in other areas.

Political analyst Martin Oloo said Kalonzo had over the years claimed there was a memorandum of understanding between him and Raila, and that he would automatically fly the coalition’s flag come 2022.

Mr Oloo said Kalonzo ought to have stood by Raila at the ‘coronation’.

Automatic inheritance

“Kalonzo would have automatically inherited the vote bloc of Raila if he stood by him, but his skipping the event was the hallmark of the backlash even from his base.

“The vacuum he created is likely to be filled by Hassan Joho (Mombasa governor),” said Oloo.

He also argued that even if Kalonzo would not have inherited Raila’s vote bloc, he stood a chance to inherit the Nyanza bloc given the proximity between Nyanza and Western.

Oloo further explained the three leaders would now be at pains to explain to the electorate why they missed Raila’s big day, given that supporters wanted to see a united opposition.

“The options for the three are very narrow. This was a political event that was to bear political consequences and not legal.

Expressing dismay

“They will be at pains to explain to the electorate and I doubt if they will succeed to re-brand themselves,” said Oloo.

And now Mudavadi’s party has summoned him to appear before the parliamentary team at the weekend to explain under what circumstances he failed to attend Raila’s ‘inauguration’.

Amani National Coalition (ANC) parliamentary group chair and Lugari MP Ayub Savula, while expressing dismay that his leader did not attend the swearing-in, wants to give Mudavadi a chance to explain himself before being condemned.

“Preliminary information reaching us is that police officers had curtailed his movement.

“We have now summoned him to appear before the parliamentary group to tell us what transpired at their meeting as principals and why he skipped the event,” said Mr Savula.

He said ANC lawmakers, senators George Khaniri (Vihiga), Cleophas Malala (Kakamega), Titus Khamala (Lurambi) and Godfrey Osotsi (nominated), were at the inauguration, adding their presence showed they were behind the event.

Emuhaya MP Omboko Milemba (ANC) complained that his party leader lost a golden opportunity to assume Kalonzo’s seat.

Milemba argued the trio that skipped the event had failed to realise political power is never given but taken.

“The biggest loser is Kalonzo, but Mudavadi lost a chance to fill Kalonzo’s vacuum.

“Mudavadi will be able to galvanise the Luhyas, but nationally he will have a rough time. The voters can be very unforgiving,” he noted.

But ODM MP Samuel Atandi (Alego Usonga) said missing the swearing-in by the trio at Uhuru Park was akin to political suicide.

“Kalonzo had made a very good move and stood a better chance going forward.

“He lost the chance and no matter how much they pacify their image, supporters will not accept their explanations. NASA is a people-driven coalition, not an individual,” said Atandi.

But University of Eldoret lecturer and political analyst Philip Chebunet argued that by skipping the event, the other principals showed Raila is a lone ranger as far as the Opposition vision is concerned.

According to Chebunet, Raila has been putting up a brave face despite his friends’ betrayal.

Brave face

“Raila is the right person but in the wrong team. The skipping of the event by the other co-principals only showed that Raila is the only person carrying the Opposition’s vision.

“He seems to have been putting a brave face for long,” he said.

Makadara MP George Aladwa downplayed the development, saying the ongoing crackdown already launched by the State is a clear indication that something might have gone wrong on Tuesday.

“We cannot start to blame any of those leaders because they have been together and formed NASA together.

“With what is now going on, we believe something went wrong somewhere,” he said.