Strengthen electoral process to minimise the cost of local polls

The National Treasury estimated that the just concluded elections cost the taxpayers Sh43 billion, arguably setting a precedent of being East Africa’s most costly ballot exercise. On a national scale, Kenya’s 19.6 million registered voters will cost the government $25.40 per voter, (About Sh2,500) the highest of any African nation. Nigeria, with nearly 70 million voters, spent $603 million in its 2015 elections, translating into $8.61 per voter while the 2016 Ghanaian elections cost $12 per voter. The Rwandese 2017 elections cost less than a dollar per voter. On a global scale, Kenya ranks only behind Papua New Guinea which spent $63 per voter.

However, these costs do not fairly and accurately capture the true toll of Kenya’s electoral process on the business community and the economy at large. To do so, economic analysts would need to estimate the opportunity costs of lost business and investment opportunities due to the anxieties and anticipation of violence that are often a precursor of any election in Kenya, especially one involving the presidential ballot.

Businesses, more so the small and medium sized enterprises, stopped stocking new goods prior to the elections. This slow down suppressed revenue growth throughout the supply chain from importers of electronic goods, farmers, industrial manufactures to small kiosks and large supermarkets., with a spiral effect on the overall economy.

Alternative transport corridors

Neighbouring countries like Uganda and Rwanda had already explored and are even implementing alternative transport corridors that will bypass the port of Mombasa due to the havoc wrecked on their economies in the past election cycle. This inevitably leads to loss of employment and revenues for custom agents at the port of Mombasa that will be long felt long after the just-concluded elections.

Mass migration of expatriates, as it was dubbed by social media, referred to the movement of expatriates from Kenya to their home countries or neighbouring safe havens in anticipation of potential violence. This mass exodus of core foreign exchange earners, coupled with stifled inflows of foreign tourist had an adverse impact on the shilling versus many other foreign currencies.

Vulnerability

Local companies, businesses and foreign investors thrive on certainties and predictability in the economic landscape. These factors enable them to develop forecasts and strategies that at times stretch into multiple years. Kenya’s electoral cycle is a vulnerability to these businesses as shocks emanating from the election cycle mean that business planning cannot occur with the expected stability in the economy.

Some foreign investors are now opting for safer haven in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Rwanda. Those losses constitute opportunity costs that should be factored in when analysing the cost of the elections.

The business community needs to reflect on the complete picture of the huge burden our unpredictable elections have on the economy. To address this, the government needs to strengthen the electoral and judicial institutions so that Kenyans have confidence with the voting process.

Confidence in the voting process will in turn lead to peaceful elections as voters will have full faith in these institutions. This will increase economic stability, greatly reducing the cost of Kenya’s elections for generations to come.

 - The writer is a commentator on social and economic issues