Will dropping Kidero give CORD an advantage?

The country moves to what is billed to be a clash of the titans between the reigning already solidified Jubilee Party and CORD likely to be expanded and inclusive opposition alliance NASA. It is a contest each side has vowed to pull all strings to win. Jubilee has the advantage incumbency, and as we know in Africa, incumbents either win, or not lose elections, a paradigm that Goodluck of Nigeria, and of all people Yahya of Gambia have, however, of late challenged. All the same, Jubilee, armed with bottomless resources, control of government machinery, and more important an ego to safeguard especially against a loss to above all a likely Odinga, will be a hard opponent to take on. And CORD, and opposition as a whole is well aware of the daunting task they have. That is why they should not shy away from any possibilities that can deliver the ultimate prize.

One of the Waterloos of the clash will be Nairobi’s gubernatorial seat. The seat is arguably the third most influential elective seat after the presidency and the deputy presidency. Jubilee, smarting from the 2013 loss of the seat, has vowed to pull out all stops to bag it this time round. CORD has sworn to retain it.

Dropping Kidero as its candidate for Nairobi will not only help CORD retain the lucrative seat but also give it impetus for capturing the presidency. This is why. One, Kenyan politics are tribal contests, unfortunately. Every community will vote in numbers for where they feel inclusive. Dropping Kidero will help strike the inclusivity of communities in the coalition in the highly likelihood that his tribesman Odinga clinches opposition’s presidential ticket. To foster belongingness among the different opposition groups of voters in Nairobi, the three positions of presidency, deputy presidency, and Nairobi governorship should be assigned to different communities.

The second reason CORD should consider dropping Evans is purely on performance. There is a general agreement across the divide that the governor has not lived up to the expectations of many. A significant section of the Nairobi voter is objective and may vote more based on the merit of the candidate as opposed to tribe or party. That is why some Jubilee supporters shunned Waititu to vote for Kidero in 2013. The middle and upper class of Nairobi want the city in the hands of a performer who can solve the city’s accumulating challenges. Kidero has proved he is not one. Kidero has also been dogged with graft claims which have not done him any good. If jubilee fronts a credible candidate from its growing list of aspirants, then CORD will be in a ran for its money. The middle and upper class voter will be a swing vote.

The third reason for CORD to drop Kidero is that owing to the first two reasons above, CORD will prove that it sensitive to regional representation. This will have a trickle effect to other counties in the presidential poll. CORD will also prove that it doesn’t condone underperformance in the capital.

To pacify Kidero, CORD should explain to him that his dropping is for the greater interest of the coalition and the country at large. He can be promised a cabinet position in the NASA government.