Barely 13 months before 2017 general elections, political heat wave is gaining momentum in Busia County especially in gubernatorial seat. Already many candidates have already declared their candidature in bid to dethrone the incumbent Governor Sospeter Ojaamong. Just to name a few Funyula legislator Dr. Paul Nyongesa Otuoma, Eng. Daniel Baraza (Chairman of National Irrigation Board), Lucas Meso ( Chairman Agricultural Finance Corporation AFC), Hilary Mainga just to name a few, are going for the same seat.
However, Governor Ojaamong'u may be re-elected again in coming 2017 general elections. First, most aspirants who have staged their candidacy are of Luhya tribe, Marachi, Samia and Bakhayo. Even if their number exceeds that of Teso people, votes will be shared among these sub-tribes. Most of them may lack home support that Governor Ojaamong'u is enjoying in Teso. Given that Teso have been voting as a block, the current Governor will have a landslide victory, amassing nearly 90% of votes in his home ground and from other regions in the County that are loyal to him.
It is thus important for these other candidates to agree on one candidate or else they risk losing it all together.
Second, Governor Ojaamong'u will be defending the post on Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a party that enjoys 90% support. As such, it will be political suicide for any other candidate to vie for a different party and the worst if it is not in Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD). This hints to you that candidates in other coalitions such as JUBILEE will have flimsy chances of wading through the tough-contested post to clinch gubernatorial seat.
Furthermore, some candidates are seriously campaigning on social media platforms. This will have small impact as not every voter has access to Facebook or twitter and not those who are pledging support on social media are registered voters. Voters may be interested in your track record which is only traceable on the ground not on social media. It is important to note that social media has a tendency to create propaganda, you can enjoy likes and comments on social media but on the Election Day, you will be taught a political lesson.
Third, Deputy Governor Kizito Wangalwa is likely to back Governor Ojaamong'u in the coming elections. This leaves those rallying behind Wangalwa in Marachi to have no option but to vote for Ojaamong'u.
Fourth Governor Ojaamong'u is still the most likeable candidate in Teso. Although Eng. Sidai in 2013 general elections from Teso vied, he was defeated by Ojaamong'u.
Based on that, it is either candidates allied to Luhya tribe work in unison or forget about gubernatorial seat.
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