Neither ‘Okoa Kenya’ nor ‘Pesa Mashinani’ can garner majority on its own, poll shows

Governor Cyprian Awiti and Senator Otieno Kajwang’ sign the Okoa Kenya referendum petition in Homa Bay. Despite such eff orts to get support across the country, poll results show that neither the CORD-led campagin nor the one spearheaded by the governors can get 50 per cent support on its own. [PHOTO: JAMES OMORO/STANDARD]

The reality of Kenyan politics in regard to the strength of individual political parties is playing out in the Okoa Kenya and Pesa Mashinani referendum drives.

Just as it is practically impossible for a single party to form a government on its own, it appears   that neither the CORD initiative nor the push by governors would succeed independently if the exercise were to be held now.

Okoa Kenya was launched by the Opposition Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), while the Council of Governors is behind the Pesa Mashinani campaign.

A poll commissioned by The Standard Group and conducted by Infotrak Research and Consulting between Tuesday and Thursday last week indicates that neither of the referendum drives has attained 50 per cent support from the sampled population.

However, if they combined their efforts, their victory margin would be guaranteed long before the campaigns, the research indicates. If they run parallel to the end and circumstances remain constant, they will both fail.

Although the Okoa Kenya initiative is more widely known – with an awareness level of 82 per cent against Pesa Mashinani’s 71.4 per cent – it scored 45.7 per cent support from the sample population. Some 54 per cent of sampled Kenyans across the country expressly said they do not support the Okoa Kenya initiative.

A sample of 1,000 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan voting population of about 14.3 million, translating into a margin of error of 3.1 at a 95 per cent degree of confidence. The poll was conducted in 25 counties.

“For their (Okoa Kenya) referendum to sail through, they need the support of the governors’ Pesa Mashinani initiative,” the research concluded on the Okoa Kenya bid.

When Kenyans were asked which referendum drive they supported between Okoa Kenya and Pesa Mashinani, the latter turned out to be more popular, attracting 24.6 per cent against the former’s 18.6 per cent.

About 20 per cent said they supported both drives, while 36 per cent said they were not sure or did not know the difference between the two.

More funds

The Pesa Mashinani initiative is premised on more funds being devolved to counties. This is also one of the key issues CORD wanted to discuss with the Jubilee administration at their proposed national dialogue conference, which the Government rejected.

“If the two initiatives were to be combined, and if you combined their respective support, it would amount to around 63 per cent. This number could go higher or drop once campaigns start,” Infotrak boss Angela Ambitho explained.

The possibility of the two drives merging has not been lost on politicians. National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale has on several occasions claimed that the two initiatives are bound to merge.

The two camps have, however, stuck to their separate drives, with Okoa Kenya proponents going round the country to collect voters’ signatures in support of their initiative. Governors are yet to launch their signature collection. A million signatures are needed to make a referendum bid valid, as per the Constitution.

Both have separate referendum committees, but their referendum issues overlap.

Besides Duale’s assertions that the two will merge at some point, the matter of logistics of two referenda for more or less similar issues has been raised.

On Friday, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chairman Ahmed Issack told The Standard on Sunday that the commission can pull off the two separately.

“If they are approved, we can have the two referenda on the same day. All we need is to have two ballot papers for the respective sides,” he said.

Asked whether it would make more logistical sense to merge the two, Issack refused to be drawn into the discussion, citing his role as the head of the commission that will oversee the process.

Practically however, if the referenda are to be held on the same day, the campaign period for the two sides will inevitably coincide.

“They will have to merge. There definitely will be a merger of parties and not necessarily merger of ideas. As it is, there are CORD governors supporting the referendum and Jubilee governors opposed to it. How will they differentiate between the two referendum drives in their campaigns?” Prof Karuti Kanyinga from the University of Nairobi poses.

Kanyinga says, because of the 50-plus-one vote rule, no block can win on its own; coalitions and mergers are the way to go.

In addition, the professor says, the merger is necessitated by the reality that the “referendum is not something one can really be passionate about”. He says Kenyans can die for their leaders, but not referendum issues.

Address insecurity

According to the poll, most Kenyans who support the Okoa Kenya referendum drive do so because they believe it will reduce the cost of living (17.7 per cent).

The second most important issue, at 15 per cent, among those polled is the belief that a successful Okoa Kenya referendum would address insecurity in the country. Some 13.4 per cent believe it will help county governments get more money, 12.4 per cent say it will bring electoral reforms and 11 per cent say it will ensure inclusivity in public appointments.

The least popular reason for supporting Okoa Kenya, cited by 2.7 per cent of those polled, is its being championed by the respondents’ political party of choice.

Most of those opposed to the Okoa Kenya referendum (14.8 percent) feel there is need to give more time for the implementation of the Constitution. Another 14.1 per cent feel the referendum is simply a waste of time and will result in nothing beneficial for the people. Others say there is nothing important in the proposed changes (13.7 per cent) while 9.3 per cent believe Okoa Kenya is a scheme by the Opposition to destabilise the government.

Release money

The least frequently given reasons for opposing Okoa Kenya was opposition by the respondents’ political party and preference for other means of achieving the desired changes.

Surprisingly, when support or opposition to the Okoa Kenya referendum drive is looked at through regional perspectives, the usual ethnic narrative starkly presents itself.

“The referendum is not really about issues. I, for one, have very many issues with the Constitution, and would want them addressed in a referendum. But I have not heard a single one of those issues raised. CORD simply wants to have the run- off that never was. It’s a popularity contest,” Prof Kanyinga says.

As for the governors, Kanyinga says they have had too many run-ins with the national government and the Senate: “They are simply reading the riot act. They are saying, ‘Please release our money on time, stop the Senate from impeaching us.’ Most of these counties do not even have an absorption capacity for the kind of money they are getting at the moment.”

According to the poll, 82 per cent of Kenyans claimed to have an idea of the referendum issues. Only 17.2 per cent said they had no idea what the issues were.

The poll was conducted in 25 counties. The sample was designed using Population Proportionate to Size (PPS). Data was collected through computer-assisted telephone interviews.