What is next on the political chase-board of Amani coalition leader Musalia Mudavadi?

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Amani Coalition leader; Musalia Mudavadi. (Photo:Standard/File)

By Stephen Makabila                            

Nairobi, Kenya: What is next on the political chase-board of Amani coalition leader Musalia Mudavadi?

Even after setting up a technical committee to guide the coalition on whether to divorce the Jubilee coalition, it has emerged the centre may not hold for long.

Amid the dilemma, Mudavadi will be a politician on the radar, with political observers keen on his next move politically.

Amani coalition has United Democratic Forum (UDF), Kanu and New Ford-Kenya (NFK).

“I had a candid chat with Mudavadi and his feeling is that Amani pursues some sort of strategic disengagement from Jubilee,” says political scientist Prof Amukowa Anangwe.

Anangwe feels the earlier Mudavadi operates in his own political sphere and aggressively consolidate support in readiness for the next election, the better for him as an individual.

But with indications Kanu could be opting out of Amani soon and NFK seemingly unhappy, Mudavadi may require  ‘solomonic wisdom’ to make his next political step.

Equally challenging is the fact that some key allies in UDF want Mudavadi to re-unite with his former ally, CORD leader Raila Odinga.

Mudavadi, in an interview with The Standard on Sunday, however, pointed out the technical committee will have the last say, after weighing the pros and cons of either disengaging or sustaining the current co-operation with Jubilee.

At the Amani Naivasha retreat between March 13 to 15, Mudavadi noted the technical committee was going to look at the pros and cons of current co-operation with Jubilee coalition and make an informed decision on the matter.

Review of operations

“The committee will make strategic recommendations on strengthening the coalition and to review its cooperation agreements with Jubilee and to reflect on matters of national concern,” said Mudavadi.

A member of the technical committee told The Standard on Sunday UDF and NFK had shared 12 positions on the committee since all indications were that Kanu had decided to operate on its own.

It had earlier been thought that each of the three partners will have four representatives on the committee.

“UDF has six positions while NFK has six positions. The feelings we have is that Kanu might have decided to operate independently and deal directly with Jubilee,” said Majimbo Kalasinga, an NFK representative in the committee.

Sources within UDF and NFK indicate it was not a matter of if they will cut ties, but when the political marriage will end, and that what they were avoiding was to ‘do it impulsively’.

The communiqué   at the end of the retreat pointed out that Amani coalition opted to cooperate with the Jubilee government on the basis of it (Jubilee) fulfilling its pre-election   promises and with the belief that equity will be observed in the distribution of national resources and opportunities. “Today, we the Amani members have decided to take stock of the government performance and re-evaluate our continued cooperation. As a political entity that stands for the rights of the Kenyan people, we are concerned that Kenyans’ expectations have been thwarted and the government has reneged on its promise.” read the communique in part.

While Mumias   East   MP Benjamin Washiali who doubles as the Jubilee Deputy Chief Which (courtesy of the cooperation between Amani and Jubilee), noted a day after the Naivasha meeting that relations between Amani and Jubilee were intact, New Ford-Kenya read from a different script.

“For us, what we know is that termination of the co-operation is on the way. Its unfortunate UDM MPs like Washiali have the temerity to disown what they had resolved at the retreat. What I did was to read the statement which ironically was prepared by UDF pointmen close to Mudavadi,” sais NFK Secretary General Benjamin Mwema.

Washiali and his Lugari counterpart Ayub Savula denounced the statement made after the alliance’s weekend retreat at Elementaita, saying it was a New Ford Kenya affair.

Different scripts

Washiali said that UDF and New Ford Kenya had different agreements with the President’s coalition and that parties interested in withdrawing should do so on their own, while Savula said that a proposal to have the coalition withdraw from the Jubilee government was made by some disgruntled elements but it was defeated. Immediate former Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito Mugali argues Amani can remain part of Jubilee part continue offering positive criticism fro within. “We do not require to be out of the coalition, we can make a lot of differences by offering our ideas and counsel from within,” added Mugali.  Anangwe says in the long run, it may be better for Mudavadi be out of the Jubilee coalition and chart his own political destiny.

The 2013 race

Indeed, Mudavadi says the March 4, 2013 presidential race where he flew the Amani coalition flag and performed dismally was a rehearsal for battles to come and that he was in the process of rebranding Amani Coalition into a veritable movement.

“I have said before that mine was a rehearsal for battles to come. We are in the process of re-branding Amani Coalition into a veritable movement. You will be hearing and seeing a lot of Amani activity this year. We want to have seamless elections soon,” added Mudavadi.

But even as Mudavadi talks of Amani, his close allies like Vihiga Senator George Khaniri, are courting him  to join the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord).

Khaniri was Mudavadi’s right handman in the campaigns to the run up of the General Elections and he is a key United Democratic Front Party (UDF) member, together with Vihiga and Sabatia MPs Yusuf Chanzu and Alfred Agoi.