Will the Jubilee Party go the way of Kanu?

Ken Opalo

The impending formation of the Jubilee Party is an interesting development. The party will serve as an important mechanism of alleviating the commitment problem built into the 2022 UhuRuto pact.

William Ruto understands that without a strong party in Uhuru Kenyatta’s second term, it will be hard for the latter to deliver on his promise of backing him come 2022. By tying the political fortunes of allied politicians to those of the president and his deputy, the Jubilee Party will minimise the risk of these elites reneging on the the UhuRuto pact. But what does the history of political parties tell us about the likelihood of the Jubilee Party surviving past 2022? To start with, we need to consider what keeps political parties alive. First, parties need a ready made political bloc. The geographic concentration of ethnic groups and the legacy of colonial-era district parties have made ethnic groups the natural nuclei of most parties. This is not to say that all parties in Kenya’s history have been ethnic in character. The Social Democratic Party, the original Kanu, among others, are examples of parties that were formed at least in part around ideas and specific pan-ethnic goals. Second, parties need material resources. To this end, parties thrive when they have a steady flow of financial resources – either from the public coffers (when in power) or through a wealthy benefactor.