Jubilee, Cord supporters battle on post Obama visit evaluation

NAIROBI, KENYA: Kenyans have expressed mixed reaction over President Barack Obama’s last month visit with a significant number doubting success of the visit.

According to the just released IPSOS survey, only about two-thirds of Kenyans are convinced that the country will obtain any substantial benefits from the visit, with about one-quarter convinced it will not, with the remainder undecided.

In terms of the country’s main political divide, slightly more Jubilee supporters expressed such optimism than CORD-aligned respondents (66percent vs. 62 percent), perhaps a reflection of the fact that President Kenyatta was clearly the main figure with whom Obama interacted, in contrast to the relatively little attention he gave the CORD (opposition) leadership.

Asked about what benefits they expect from the visit, Kenyans cited economic gains (“trade”, “employment” and general “development”), these combined constitute over half of all (single-option) mentions (55 percent). These are followed by security/counter-terrorism and corruption, but at decidedly lower levels (13 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively).

“Only minor contrasts emerge in terms of the supporters of the main political coalitions.”

On Kenya’s external relations, a clear majority of Kenyans (56 percent) place the U.S. first in terms of this issue, more than three times as ‘popular’ as its nearest rival, China (at 15 percent). This represents a major change from the results of Ipsos’ 1st Quarter survey. At that time, the US still scored highest, but by a much narrower margin (of just 12 percent: 35 percent compared to 23percent).

This change is mirrored in results associated with supporters of both of the main political groupings: for those of Jubilee, an increase in support for the U.S. (22percent, from 29percent to 51percent), and a (more modest) decline in support for China (of 10percent, from 33percent to 23percent).

On the CORD side, an equivalent increase in approval of strong U.S.Kenya relations is seen (of 21percent, from 47percent to 68percent), and a decline by half in that for China (from 13percent to 7percent).