Can Musalia Mudavadi cobble up a third force?

By Stephen Makabila

After dramatic exit from Uhuru, Ruto-led coalition, eyes are on the Sabatia MP as his team becomes restless and the contest between Cord, Jubilee shapes up into a two-horse affair

What are the chances of a third force coming up to battle it out with the two leading pre-election alliances – Cord and Jubilee?

While eyes are on UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi, the Pambazuka and the Eagle coalitions, and Narc-Kenya presidential aspirant Martha Karua to come up with such a force, analysts are skeptical.

Can Mudavadi, who was this week dumped by Jubilee leaders Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto team up with the other players and tilt the political arithmetic?

Head of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Nairobi Adams Oloo says any one thinking of a third force in the March 4 contest is dreaming.

“This is going to be a two-horse race between Cord and Jubilee. When they hit the campaign trail, all other players outside the two orbits will be swallowed because Kenyans will see no need of wasting votes on candidates whose winning prospects are slim,” added Oloo.

Slim chance

Prof Munene Macharia of United States International University says a third force can only spring up if the two main coalitions mess up their campaigns.

“If they do not mess up, there are no chances of a strong third force. But the two are currently not looking so good,” added Macharia, a professor of history.

When the Pambazuka alliance was formed by Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa, and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, its objective was to become a third force.

Wamalwa has bolted to join KNC’s Peter Kenneth, and former Cabinet minister Raphael Tuju to form another alliance.

Equally, the Mudavadi’s allies are toying with the idea of teaming up with others to come up with a third force that could determine who secures the presidency at the run-off stage. A close Mudavadi ally, John Chikati, told The Standard On Sunday they were determined to make a strong third force, which would decide who wins.

“Let no one take us for granted because we will at the end decide who forms government,” added Chikati. However, Oloo says there is likely to be no run-off depending on how Cord and Jubilee campaign.

Oloo says Mudavadi should make a quick decision and join Cord or he could be deserted by some of his trusted supporters who are watching political developments. “Some MPs followed Mudavadi to UDF because they thought he could be a compromise candidate backed by Uhuru and Ruto. Now that he is not, they are likely to change tack to preserve their lifelines,” added Oloo.

Jirongo says it’s not ease to form a strong third force because powerful forces in Government have been working against that. “I have repeatedly said such schemes so that Kenyans can be aware that political manipulation is tantamount to rigging an election and denying the public the right to choose their leaders in an open and fair manner. I have specifically warned Mudavadi and Wamalwa against falling prey to such political machinations,” said Jirongo.

Jirongo says plans are still alive to ensure Jubilee gets 30 per cent of the Western bloc vote even with Mudavadi’s exit from the alliance.

“They are scheming to have some of us replace Mudavadi there; that’s why Pambazuka had to be split,” he added.

Jirongo says the impression that had been created that Mudavadi was the State’s preferred candidate was diversionary, and that the preferred person had all along been Jubilee’s Uhuru.

“It’s either we make use of our experience and wisdom, come together and speak with one voice, or we are done,” added Jirongo.

Acting separately

While joining forces by those outside Cord and Jubilee could turn them into a strong third force, they are acting separately, with each group pursuing own interests.

Yesterday, as the main two coalitions showcased their might at Uhuru Park (Cord) and Tononoka Grounds (Jubilee), Mudavadi was his own in Turbo, Uasin Gishu County.

The team of Wamalwa, Kenneth, and Tuju were on the other hand holding a rally at Nairobi’s Huruma Grounds. Today, Wamalwa is to address a Western aspirants’ meeting, which Jirongo has dismissed, further showing how divisive forces outside the two main coalitions are.

“This is to inform you that the purported Pambazuka Coalition Aspirants meeting communicated to western Kenya aspirants through text messages is invalid,” read a statement Jirongo sent to media houses.

Before the December 4 deadline for filing of pre-election coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties, there had been reports that Mudavadi, Wamalwa, Kenneth, and Tuju were to sign a pre-election deal. However, Mudavadi ended up in Jubilee, Wamalwa in Pambazuka, while Kenneth and Tuju paired up. Two weeks later and Mudavadi is out of Jubilee and Wamalwa joining Kenneth and Tuju.

Speaking to journalists at Intercontinental Hotel in Nairobi on Thursday, the three leaders maintained that the country cannot be limited to only two choices and declared their new union as the better option.

“We are looking at ways and means of ensuring that Kenyans have the better option. You will be seeing us more together,” Wamalwa said.

Time will tell if the dream that existed before December 4 can come alive. “If they gang up and speak with one voice, they can form a formidable force,” said Macharia.