Five possible results of Uhuru-Ruto brawl

When President Uhuru Kenyatta and Rt. Honorable Raila Odinga came together to end their fierce political competition, one thing could be read between the lines; that both of them wanted to get into each other's political outfit and scuttle them! This has come to pass albeit partially.

There is no opposition as it were... The ruling party is on the verge of tearing apart! William Ruto's allies claim that there's a network of senior government officials that is crafting a narrative aimed at edging out their man...to block him from succeeding his boss. They feel that the ongoing fight against graft and call for lifestyle audit on senior government officials is choreographed and aimed at working against the Deputy President as far as his 2022 presidential bid is concerned. 

The President and the Deputy President haven't publicly shown any signs of wrangles between them...However, on more than two occasions deputy president has played down rumors that his rapport with the president is on the rocks! Should the alleged/simmering rift actualize, below will be the political byproducts; 

1. New 2022 Frontrunner

If/when Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Ruto go separate ways, the former will endorse a candidate (mostly from his backyard- Central Kenya) to succeed him. That candidate is "not known" hitherto. That candidate could also be Mr. Gideon Moi- son of his political mentor! There is a likelihood that Kenya's political dynasties would want the power to rotate amongst them. Such endorsement would complicate Mr. Ruto's political mathematics given that the Central Kenya region would not vote for him to the last man... It would also mean that he wouldn't get near 100% of the rift Valley votes should Kenyatta endorse Gideon Moi who hails from Ruto's backyard. He would be required to formulate a top-notch strategy to achieve a bigger portion of the regions' votes. 

2. New political outfit/alliance

Separation of the two "political friends" would be the end of Jubilee Party. The deputy president would be required to pick another/new political outfit to run on. New alliances will emerge as every presidential candidate will try to bring on board as much support as possible to their side. 

3. Tribal division

In the year 2013, the presidency brought together two communities that were not united for a long while...the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin communities. The Kenyatta-Ruto political divorce would negate all the unity gains made between the two communities for the last five years. Mr. Ruto's community would feel cheated and misused... their expectation is that Mr. Kenyatta's community will support Mr. Ruto because he stood by/with Mr. Kenyatta throughout his first term and during his reelection campaigns. Such a divorce would pit the two communities against each other.

4. Development agenda would stall

It would be difficult for the Jubilee party to execute its Big Four agenda. This would be as a result of vehement opposition frustration from the estranged Ruto's side and the newly found anti-Jubilee formations. Politics towards 2022 will have begun in earnest hence it would be a nightmare to implement major development plans.

5. 2022 Campaigns Kick Off

If/when the president and his deputy fall out, the country will be thrown into a serious political mood. All persons interested in the 2022 presidency will start grouping/aligning themselves and traverse the country opposing and talking at each other. It would be one of the toughest political contest this country has ever seen. 

Conclusion

The biggest loser in all these scenarios is the common Kenyan who expects the elected leaders to deliver. In such political times, little development would be attained... this means that common citizens will continue to wallow in joblessness, disease, poor houses, and hunger! 

Mr. Ruto's presidency is pegged on four things;

1. God's will

2. President Kenyatta's favor/blessings 

3. Tools of power; security machinery, judiciary, election commission etc

4. Kenyans' favor!