Aircraft accident: Is "bad weather" really the cause?

An aircraft approaching a thunderstorm.

 

By James Ouma

Every so often, whenever an aircraft accident occurs in these parts of the world, the public is first treated to an ambiguous and often vague - most likely cause, “Bad Weather”.But what exactly is “bad weather” in relations to flying?

Fog, low cloud, rain or blowing sand, will hinder the pilots’ ability to see forward but are not necessarily “bad weather”. They should not pose any undue risk to an aircraft flying through them.

Strong winds and turbulent air are the other weather phenomenon that could be experienced during flight. But even these two pose no significant risk to flying. Some discomfort and anxiety may be experienced by the crew and passengers, but that is just about it.

Thunderstorms and lightening could be considered bad weather to some degree, but are not necessarily dangerous. Aircrafts are designed and equipped to withstand any effects they may cause during flight. Furthermore, pilots are rigorously trained on how to fly through them if that is the only option or fly well clear.

What I am saying here is that, in designing aircraft and training pilots, the aviation industry has taken into consideration the likely effects of bad weather and how to mitigate those effects.

So to say, and more so before investigations are done, that the likely cause of an aircraft accident was “bad weather” could be misleading and most likely incorrect. This is not to suggest bad weather never caused an aircraft to crash, but these are only in the rarest occasions. More often it is not bad weather per-se, either the pilot poorly managed the situation due to insufficient training, non-qualification or inexperience OR the aircraft itself not being adequately equipped or poorly maintained or both.

Flying in fog or rain is no different from flying through a dark night. In the air, the pilot does not need to ‘see’ where he is going. So long as he is trained and qualified to fly on aircraft instruments without having to look outside, there should be no risks. As a matter of fact it is safer to fly this way than having to look outside whereby the pilot would not be able to accurately determine his height or speed. When flying on instruments alone, he has at his disposal, accurate information on height; speed; direction; distance travelled and distance to go. Up-to-date information on how other systems and the engines are functioning is also continuously displayed.

On board aircraft computers, programmed on the ground before the trip and updated during flight will bring him to within meters of the landing runway (strip) of the destination airport. Radio signal transmitters, located enroute and at the airport and communication with Air Traffic Controllers further ensure that he doesn’t get lost. On arrival the pilot can then land if he can see the runway. If he cannot, his training and regulations dictate that he immediately flies back into the air and goes somewhere else or waits for the weather to clear.

Today, equipment that alerts the pilot if there is a risk of collision with other aircrafts is standard in most aircrafts. Should two aircrafts come to within ten km of each other and there is a risk of collision, an alert is triggered. A loud aural warning plus voice instructions on what to do, are thrown in for good measure should the pilot be inattentive.

 Mountains and high ground are detected tens of kilometers away by the onboard radar. Similar warnings and voice instructions are given should the pilot mistakenly try to fly towards them. In any case, the pilot, through his charts, would know the locations and heights of any such high grounds beforehand. All this is to say that, come fog or rain everything should still be under control.

Turbulent air or turbulence is the other phenomenon of “bad weather”. Uncomfortable and sometimes quite unsettling, the only risk, and only in extreme cases, is injury if one is not strapped to their seats at the time. The pilot will give advance warning to his passengers by switching on the “fasten seat belts” signs. Contrary to popular perception, the aircraft will not breakup or fall from the sky. There have been cases where pilots lost control, but again, these are extremely rare.

And as for the much dreaded thunderstorm and lightning, an aircraft can take a direct lighting strike without any harm coming to those inside. The nature of its design is such that since the occupants are enclosed in the aluminum “shell” they cannot form a path to earth for the electric charge. The electric energy is harmlessly discharged through wicks at the extreme ends of the aircraft.

I would like to conclude by saying that, with a qualified and experienced pilot flying a properly equipped and maintained aircraft, flying through “bad weather” should be as safe as any other flight. Bad weather therefore should always be at the bottom of the list when looking for the culprit an air accident.

The writer is an Aviation Safety Consultant. Kenya Civil Aviation Authority