Alternative keys exist to IEBC's choice of next March election date, but which is real?

By Public Watchdog

The Kenyan public wants elections held sooner, but the politicians are not prepared and hope to push it as far as possible, notwithstanding, theatrics to the contrary.

The Court has played its key but remains with unfinished business at the Court of appeal and possibly could end up at the Supreme Court. President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, jointly and separately during the transition period, hold alternative Keys to triggering the setting of an election date but have, however, chosen to work at cross-purposes. Why?

Playing politics of intrigue and machination, of course.

Amidst, sustained political intrigue, however, lies a restless people and the Independent Electorate and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). The latter need finality concerning the election date in order to prepare substantive matters of holding elections.

Genetic make-up

As for the political class, the reasons are obvious — to gain political capital and disrupt opponents’ strategies. But who will be the master player in the murky world of politics? That, remains a matter of conjecture!

What, then, are the compelling issues?

First, it is an acknowledged fact that the electorate is generally now fed up with sustained theatrics of the political class, and is eager to vote out most of them. Why?

The people face deteriorating standards of living, with respect to ever-rising poverty and unemployment and although, they become at the centre of attraction at election time, the voters’ anguish, as always, only receives lip service and fresh promises at every election.

That is why exiting Parliament remains an inevitable expectation for many of our current crop of Members of Parliament.

Yes, a crop is an appropriate characterisation for these legislators, as any crop is subject to renewal and rejuvenation in order to upgrade its genetic make-up. It is a necessary proposition to ensure service delivery to the people and political yield in terms of better governance.

History has shown us that, the Kenyan electorate come election time — every five years — has made efforts to renew the crop of legislators, by voting out at least 60 per cent and electing new ones in order to rejuvenate the genetic make-up of the Legislative arm of Government. But, nothing yet seems to have been dramatic enough to change our country’s course of governance.

Makes no sense

It would be impossible to secure any legislation to facilitate general elections during this year given that current legislators are aware of their fate.

It must, however, be acknowledged that the Tenth Parliament has made some progress. How?

The shared Grand Coalition Government has made progress in facilitating adoption of a new Constitutional Order, initiating institutional reforms, and investments on road infrastructure.

Courting trouble

Secondly, it must also be now clear, that anyone who stands against the people’s quest to exercise their democratic rights would face their wrath come election time. So, it makes no sense at all for the Tenth Parliament to seek to extend its term and to reduce the term of the next parliament — the Eleventh Parliament.

Further, for President Kibaki, a retiring President, to use the same excuse to extend his term beyond the constitutional limit of December 2012 would unnecessarily be courting trouble.

It would be unfortunate, if, our leaders fail to read clearly the mood of the people, with respect to the date of the next elections.

IEBC was certainly left without any option but to exploit the opportunity arising out the court’s interpretation with respect to what would happen should the two Principals fail to agree to dissolve the coalition by October 2012.

In this regard, IEBC’s decision to place the next election on March 4, 2013, should be seen as a date of last resort, should nothing else happen to triggers the Keys to early elections.

Thirdly, yes, it is still possible to hold the general elections this year in case those holding alterative Keys choose to play games and trigger the elections. How?

A decision by a higher court, either the Court of Appeal or Supreme Court can still make a contrary ruling to that previously issued by the High Court that could change the dynamics.

This is possible.

Another Key is that President Kibaki and the Prime Minister could still agree to dissolve the Coalition. This is unlikely given their varying interests.

Finally, either the President through his Party of National Unity top organ could choose the path of dissolving the coalition.

Again, this is unlikely, as Kibaki is retiring from active politics having served his constitutional term. This leaves one active Key with the Prime Minister.

Seize public mood

Can he opt to stand on the side of the people and make the next election date a decision of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) top organ by walking out to force dissolution of the coalition? The truth must be said that, agreement or not would lead to dissolution, so there is no need for agreement under such circumstances.

This is highly plausible and possible. Thus, ODM can resist its legislators’ temptation to self-preservation and seize the mood of the country for a December 17 Election, this being a matter of compelling public interest.

The author is an opinion leader who prefers to remain anonymous.

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