Why Ruto is still more attractive to opposition MPs deserting Raila

It helped him blunt attempts by former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga to sideline him, then-deputy president after their political deal following the 2017 elections.

A patient schemer, Ruto didn't throw in the towel and let his adversaries relish his absence.

He maintained his ties with many government officials, who, on their part, found a way to work with him, albeit surreptitiously. At the time, things were so unsettling that Ruto, then a presidential candidate, chillingly expressed his worry over the safety of his family in one of his election campaign appearances.

Now in power, Ruto is doing what he does best: Meeting with politicians, but this time those fleeing their parties and craving to work with him for, as they say, the good of the country.

Those elected politicians from the Nyanza region that was the main support base of Raila, in an open, in-your-face disrespect for the opposition leader who has been spearheading anti-Ruto agitation since last year, when he lost the election to Ruto.

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President William Ruto's 2022 victory was more than sheer good luck. While Raila's loss was largely attributed to his campaign's internal disorganisation, the lack of strategy and dependence on the former president, it's increasingly becoming evident that Ruto was all along some sort of a lodestone, an advantage that helped him bulk up on politicians fleeing their parties or those willing to support his candidacy.

Many Kenyans are puzzled over the mystical qualities that are making Ruto so appealing that even his erstwhile enemies are now falling over themselves to make up with him.

Remember the 180-degree turn of Francis Atwoli, secretary-general of the Central Organisation of Trade Unions, and his apology over his harsh remarks denigrating Ruto before the election. Atwoli once said Ruto would not be a president in 2022 and then went on and asked his audience to "take that to the bank."

While Ruto's generosity, eloquence, intelligence, and energy get top billing, other qualities, such as his unpretentiousness, open-door policy, joviality, candidness, decency, and the touch of a common man barely attract the attention - and these very qualities contribute to his popularity.

ODM's expulsion of the five lawmakers has elicited condemnation from Kenya Kwanza officials, who ripped Raila for meeting with the president in Mombasa while punishing his allied lawmakers for working with the president.

So far, rebel lawmakers have gotten a reprieve until their case is heard and determined.

When Ruto took office on September 13, 2022, he found a nation, whose politics were so ossified that it was unrealistic to expect that his leadership style and his tone would catalyse a dramatic change in a year, as many who voted for him would have wished. But his signalling that he was different from his predecessor was as good as a change, making many politicians feel comfortable working with him.

Nine years

The opposition lawmakers argue that their intention of working with the government is in the interest of their constituencies, but there could be other considerations: The August election loss and the advanced age of Raila may have convinced some politicians that they don't have to stick with Raila any longer, especially when Ruto could be around for the coming for nine years.

The increasing acceptance of some opposition figures of Ruto carries a warning for Raila and for the larger opposition. Nasong'o Muliro, the national and foreign policy specialist, said Raila's political life appears to be "approaching its natural end."

"The opposition will enter 2027 as a fledgling and fragmented outfit," Muliro said, citing the difficulty of recruiting a formidable opposition leader to replace Raila if he decides to exit from elective politics.

He said there's already a widespread narrative that if Ruto can defeat Raila, who was backed by the government "it will be a walkover now that he's at the helm of the government."

Defiant lawmakers' action is a particular heartbreak for Raila at a time when he hasn't yet recognised Ruto as president, irrelevant as that may be legal at this late time after the country's Supreme Court confirmed Ruto's win.

For the whole of last year, the Raila-led opposition has been trying to delegitimise Ruto's election victory through a litany of actions - demonstrations, calls for boycotts and even threats to split the country in two, among others.

In response, Ruto has quietly but steadily taken an axe to his opponents' parties. His efforts have so far exceeded expectations: His allies are now in charge of the Jubilee Party, the party that was once chaired by former President Uhuru.

Raila's ODM, one of the most successful political outfits in the country's history, is also being torn apart - one man or woman at a time, the most intensive battlefront being Nyanza, Raila's backyard.

Muliro said Ruto keeps his friends and prioritises his community concerns." Both Ruto and Raila, he said, are "power centric, calculating, and relatively deceptive," he said. "Raila is also trusting, plans for the now," Muliro said. "Ruto appears to trust others less and is even planning for the long haul."

The new interest by opposition lawmakers to work with Ruto has warmed the hearts of the ruling party officials while hurting the opposition leaders, who're at a loss about how to deal with Ruto's mojo.

While selfishness and self-preservation may have played a role in the decision of the opposition lawmakers working with the Ruto administration, it's clear that Ruto's advent has discernibly brought with it new political and leadership changes.

The new development has implications for the country, the ruling coalition and the opposition. For Raila, he's already facing calls to quit politics, some coming from his own once-loyal tribesmen.

"It is time Raila pulled back and became a mentor for the younger generation," said Odhiambo, who revealed that he had no intention of joining the president's party. "We will fight from within our party. When your house is on fire, you don't run away," he said.

Odhiambo, who was one of the lawmakers who met the president recently, had nothing but effusive praise for the Head of State, ticking off some of the gains of their relationship with the president: In the coming weeks, the president will visit the region and camp in Nyanza, especially Kisumu, to launch projects. Over 21 villages in the region will soon be provided with electricity, with a cost of Sh68 million. The president had donated Sh10 million to several schools in the region.

"We are growing," he said, disclosing that two more lawmakers, whom he didn't name, will start closing ranks with them in their endeavour to work with the president, bringing the total rebel lawmakers to nine.

After decades of "divide and conquer" politics that led to the underdevelopment and marginalisation of certain regions perceived to be opposition strongholds, the Ruto administration's "all Kenyan regions" message seems a breath of fresh air for many who didn't support him during the election.

In an interview last May with Citizen TV's JKL show, Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale decried the "politics of deceit, betrayal and backstabbing" that characterised the country's smash-mouth politics.

"I am not praising him (Ruto) because he's my boss, I think he is a decent politician. He keeps friends. He respects friends and he's a man who's very consultative in decision-making," Duale said.

Ruto's tone of working with everyone has spread a rare sense of relief among foes and friends that he's not a threat to any particular tribe, and that the interests of all will be served for the good of the country. Of course, Ruto, a smooth-tongued politician will do everything that could help him win the 2027 elections.