How Kalonzo could reshape Ruto's 2027 re-election bid

President William Ruto has used his four-day development tour of Ukambani to court Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka as he seeks to consolidate support ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Facing the prospect of a united opposition and shifting political dynamics, Ruto has intensified his visits to the region, using development projects and public engagements in what analysts describe as a charm offensive aimed at winning over voters.

Political analysts argue that while the Head of State appears intent on loosening Kalonzo’s grip on Ukambani, he is also seeking to persuade the Wiper leader to join the broad-based government. The two-pronged strategy could help Ruto strengthen his re-election bid while weakening efforts to unite the opposition.

So why is Ruto interested in Kalonzo?

According to results announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Ruto won the presidency in 2022 with 7,176,141 votes against Raila Odinga’s 6,942,930, a margin of 233,211 votes.

The three Lower Eastern counties of Machakos, Kitui and Makueni delivered approximately 769,386 votes to Raila, who was backed by Kalonzo, compared with 250,161 votes for Ruto.

With the latest voter registration exercise by the IEBC, the region’s electorate is projected to exceed two million, potentially increasing its influence in the next election.

Analysts argue that if Ruto can rally Lower Eastern voters behind him following Raila’s exit from the political equation, he could significantly alter the national electoral arithmetic. Such a shift would also deal a blow to the opposition, which is seeking to unite behind a common candidate to challenge the President.

However, securing Kalonzo’s support would not automatically guarantee victory for Ruto. The Wiper leader’s supporters could reject an alliance with the President and remain aligned with the opposition.

Kalonzo’s political significance is also linked to developments in the wider Mt Kenya region, which delivered approximately 3.5 million votes to Ruto in 2022.

Analysts say that if Mt Kenya’s political support fragments in the absence of an undisputed regional candidate, Ruto could seek to compensate by consolidating support in the Rift Valley, Lower Eastern, Nyanza and Western regions.

However, a united Mt Kenya region rallying behind a clear political leader could complicate Ruto’s re-election strategy and limit the prospects of an alliance with Kalonzo.

“President Ruto knows and understands that he needs the numbers that Kalonzo can deliver for him to enjoy a comfortable win. Without it, he only enjoys fragmented support across the country save for the Rift Valley which is his vote basket. He has already lost support in the Mt Kenya region that overwhelmingly voted for him in 2022. Ruto needs the Ukambani region votes if he is to win, as well as those from other former Raila Odinga’s bastions that he is so desperately trying to inherit,” said a Wiper party MP yesterday.

Ruto’s efforts to court Kalonzo were also evident during his four-day development tour of Ukambani.

Speaking during the launch of a Sh5 billion, 55-kilometre road project in Mwingi North Constituency, Ruto directed the contractor working on the Twimiwa-Tseikuru-Usweni road to extend tarmacking to a three-kilometre stretch leading to Kalonzo’s rural home in Tseikuru, Kitui County.

The directive drew attention because of Kalonzo’s position in the opposition and his political differences with the President.

Addressing the contractor at the event, Ruto said the road leading to Kalonzo’s home should also be paved, arguing that residents should not be excluded from development because of their political affiliations.

“Na wewe contractor, huyu contractor ako hapa, nimesema sitaki hii dhuluma. Hii barabara wakati inatengenezwa wewe iko kilomita tatu ya kwenda kwa ndugu yangu Kalonzo. Pia hiyo iwekwe lami mpaka kwake nyumbani,” Ruto said.

He defended the directive by saying Kalonzo was also Kenyan and that his government served all citizens, including residents of Tseikuru.

“Si Kalonzo pia ni Mkenya na mimi ni Rais wa Kenya na natumikia watu wote, na hata watu wa Tseikuru ni Wakenya,” he said.

At the same event, Ruto challenged Kalonzo to prepare for another presidential interview, reviving debate over the Wiper leader’s 2022 presidential candidacy.

Speaking in Tseikuru on Monday, Ruto recalled the interview Kalonzo underwent ahead of the 2022 General Election, questioning why the veteran politician had been subjected to questions about his identity and academic qualifications.

He claimed that the same people who interviewed Kalonzo in 2022 were preparing to subject him to another interview ahead of the 2027 election.

“Mimi nataka niwaulize, walimpeleka Kalonzo kwa interview ile mwaka ingine, 2022, walimpeleka kwa interview mlimuona anafanya interview? Aha, sema jina yako, Kalonzo Musyoka. Aha, uko na kitambulisho? Eh, umesoma nini, mnaona ni madharau kiasi hiyo?” Ruto said.

The President questioned what he described as disrespect towards Kalonzo, arguing that the Wiper leader’s political standing should not be overlooked.

He challenged Ukambani residents to urge Kalonzo to support his re-election bid instead of submitting to another interview, repeatedly asking the crowd to respond.

“Sasa badala ya ndugu ya Kalonzo kwenda kufanya interview tena, afanye nini? Ati afanye nini? Ati afanye nini? Ati afanye nini? Si ninyi ndiyo mmesema?” Ruto posed.

It remains to be seen whether Kalonzo will maintain his position in the opposition or enter coalition talks with the current administration as the 2027 General Election approaches.