Dancing on Raila's grave: Memorial events turn into a Ruto reelection campaign

Members of ODM light candles at Treasury Square in Mombasa to commemorate the first anniversary of Raila Odinga. [Omondi Onyango, Standard]

It is an anniversary that many had longed for after a year of pain and anguish following the death of a man who was loved by multitudes across the country and whose influence continues to permeate several aspects of the country’s democracy.

Many of his ardent followers had hoped his anniversary would provide them with an opportunity to reminisce about the past of the late ODM Raila Odinga, the present status of the democratic ideals that cost him detention, blood, sweat and tears, and what awaits his legacy.

And on the first day of the celebrations last week, nearly all towns were a beehive of activities as scores turned up to light up candles to mark the first anniversary of the late Raila.

But despite the expectations of the masses and his ardent followers, Raila’s planned anniversary has evolved into a full-blown reelection campaign for President William Ruto and a supremacy battle in the ODM party.

President Ruto and his allies are leaving nothing to chance as he shifts the event into an approval campaign in his bid to inherit the late Raila’s political strongholds, and his allies are cheering him on. Critics, however, believe the trajectory the political class has taken is an insult and a betrayal to Raila.

Coined under the guise of protecting Raila’s legacy, Ruto and his allies are in overdrive to exploit the anniversary as a launchpad to catapult Ruto’s reelection campaign. In Nyanza, it has become the perfect platform to reinforce his bid to inherit the late Raila’s support base. Messages have been carefully intertwined to anchor the president’s reelection agenda.

ODM, too, has lined up a series of activities dubbed Mwezi Baba, but the main theme from the first rally was simple: Ruto deserves another chance to lead the country, relegating the legacy of Raila to what some claim is an afterthought.

In the last two main public events that have taken place so far since the anniversary celebrations began, the theme of Ruto’s reelection campaign has overshadowed the first anniversary of an icon.

This is happening as a simmering battle for control pitting ODM echelons against each other and against a section of members of the Jaramogi family.

On Wednesday, Raila’s younger daughter Winnie Odinga cautioned the political class against turning the official anniversary scheduled for October 15 into a supremacy contest or an avenue to push political narratives.

“As his family, we call for a political ceasefire in his honour. Please let the 15th be a day of remembrance and celebration. It should not be a political showground, a competition over who owns the crowd, who receives the loudest cheer or who can embarrass the other,” said Winnie.

Questions, however, remain if their plea will bear fruit as the president and his allies exploit the anniversary and the series of events organized by the ODM party to front Ruto’s reelection agenda and discredit the opposition.

On Wednesday, moments after the president unveiled Raila’s mausoleum, Ruto went full-blown on campaigns, hitting out at the opposition and urging residents to back his reelection bid.

While addressing residents in Bondo, the president described the opposition as clueless as he led residents to chant slogans associated with his reelection campaign.

“Those who are trying to compete with us, do not bother about them. We will defeat them very early and easily,” said Ruto. He said regardless of what happens, he is optimistic of earning a second term in office.

He used his speeches to align his campaign agenda with Raila’s legacy, saying Raila’s legacy would not be confined to monuments and memorials, but would also be reflected in policies and programmes targeting equitable development, affordable housing, social protection, universal healthcare, devolution, infrastructure development, support for vulnerable Kenyans, electoral justice and national unity.

“Our duty is not merely to remember Raila. Our duty is to finish his work: To believe in Kenya as he did, and to trust that united, we can overcome any challenge whatever our differences. We build in stone to remember him. We build in policy and action to honour him,” he said.

His allies, led by ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, urged residents to back the president’s reelection bid, adding that the president had shown keen interest in developing the region.

“We are feeling ypur presence and we will vote for you to the last man,” said Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo.

But the trend is not isolated. The pre-anniversary events all feature Ruto’s theme as a central point of focus for both government operatives and his ODM allies.

The Standard has established that beneath the celebrations that have evolved into a Ruto-reelection campaign, a stiff supremacy battle for the control of ODM has hit its peak as leaders jostle to inherit the space he left in ODM.

With party leader Oburu Oginga bedridden and out of action to guide the party, fear has gripped party organs, and a battle for supremacy has resumed as key party stalwarts intensify their bids to build their political profiles as possible heirs apparent to Raila.

The Standard has established that the absence of father figure Oburu from active politics has opened a fresh can of political worms of a muddy succession race. The party’s leadership is exploiting the temporary power vacuum to stake their claim in the race to inherit Raila’s political throne.

This, coupled with UDA’s relentless pursuit of strength in ODM’s perceived strongholds, has put the party in a precarious position and pushed Raila’s anniversary to the periphery.

The developments have turned the anniversary of the late Raila into a race for political approval for some and to others, a moment for all Kenyans to celebrate the man who played a critical role in championing the country’s democracy.

This perhaps explains the ongoing controversies over the planning of the anniversary, where Raila’s family has sought more control over the exercise even as ODM chieftains also implement their parallel plans across the country.

Yesterday, a section of party insiders claimed that there are issues of concern that need to be resolved by the party leadership but raised doubts about how soon that pursuit will deliver success in the absence of Oburu, who has equally struggled to steady the rocky political ship.

They, however, claimed that the issues should not be an excuse to focus on supremacy battles at the expense of allowing party diehards to celebrate Raila’s anniversary.

Observers believe the party leadership jostling was expected, but some are projecting doom on what the future holds for the party and believe President Ruto is enjoying the spoils and will reap big regardless of where the ODM tree falls.

“The proverbial strongman left last year. Now the question is who can bell the cat and eat the best of the land?” he poses.

A senior member of the party told The Standard that the burden is on deputy party leaders Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, Kisii governor Simba Arati and chairperson Gladys Wanga to restore confidence in the party.

The two deputy party leaders, however, are also barely scraping through as they fight their own battles that threaten to sink ODM in their backyards.

In Mombasa, for instance, Nassir has failed in his push to convince their counterparts in President William Ruto’s UDA to accept their push for zoning in favor of ODM. Here, Ruto’s troops, led by UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar, are leading a push against zoning, saying the move will deny voters a chance to choose their preferred leaders.

Omar, who is also a member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), has kept Nassir on the edge of his seat as he braces to challenge the county chief. Attempts by Ruto to dissuade other players, including businessman and EALA member Suleiman Shabbal from shelving his ambitions have all hit a brick wall.

In Gusii, Arati, who is also leading his own initiatives to project himself as one of the candidates for succession, is also facing a herculean task to keep the voting bloc under ODM’s wraps as Jubilee, through former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, digs in.

For a party that had been hoping to use Raila’s anniversary to strengthen its grassroots support, a cloud of doubt is hovering around that pursuit as several teething problems bite the party.

On Wednesday, hours before the government officially handed over Raila’s mausoleum to the family, Raila’s younger sister and Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga claimed that some people have already been promised party tickets.

She claimed that free and fair nominations should be non-negotiable within the party. “Let us not kill our favourite train, ODM with free tickets to our favourites,” she said, adding that she is puzzled of reports that some people have already been promised party tickets.

Her comments came amid claims that some party officials have already aligned themselves with specific aspirants. Party chairperson Gladys Wanga has been accused of allegedly fronting particular aspirants for seats, a claim she has denied and maintains ODM nominations will be free and fair.

Last month, Muhoroni MP James Koyoo told The Standard that the chairperson has already taken sides and is fronting her brother Robert Nyasuna to unseat him.

Across the country, party stalwarts are also building support and mobilizing party members to back their exploits. In Nairobi, a section of party officials are rooting for Governor Johnson Sakaja to decamp from UDA and be given the party’s ticket as other party officials root for Makadara MP George Aladwa.

And on Friday in Kakamega, the situation was the same as an event organized by the party to mark Raila’s anniversary evolved into a campaign trail for Ruto and Governor Fernandes Barasa’s reelection campaign.

Attendees were dressed in ODM outfits bearing pictures of Barasa while speeches were dominated by calls for Ruto’s reelection and an intense attack on members of the opposition.

The commemorative event at Bukhungu Stadium revealed widening differences over ODM’s leadership, its relationship with President William Ruto’s administration and who should inherit Raila’s political support ahead of the 2027 General Election.

While Barasa and his allies defended cooperation with the government and accused unnamed leaders of undermining ODM’s unity, Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula and Likuyani MP Innocent Mugabe turned their criticism on former President Uhuru Kenyatta, questioning his ability to influence the opposition after failing to secure victory for Raila in the 2022 presidential election.

Junet also took aim at Sifuna’s presidential ambitions, questioning whether the Nairobi senator had the political experience to seek the country’s top seat when ODM had struggled for decades to capture the presidency.

The meeting brought together ODM national chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Junet, Barasa, Mugabe, Butere MP Tindi Mwale and Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula.

However, the absence of Oparanya and several leaders associated with him fuelled speculation about the deepening rivalry between the two camps in Kakamega.

Other notable absentees included Kakamega Woman Representative Elsie Muhanda, Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera, Khwisero MP Miradi Aseka and Ikolomani MP Bernard Shinali.