Panic hits Ruto's camp as growing opposition wave grips Western

President William Ruto is in panic mode as a political avalanche of uncertainties sweeps away his support in Western, threatening to collapse a formidable support base his insiders are banking on to replace the shaky Mount Kenya region that is rapidly slipping away to his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.

Losing Western to the fresh political fire unleashed by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi brigade could be catastrophic for a man who is leaving no stone unturned in his relentless pursuit for another term.

The desperation in the president’s camp is glaring as they heighten mobilisation efforts. For the first time, Linda Mwananchi has become a major point of concern, dominating their messaging as they seek to vilify the group and market themselves as the saviour of the region. But not all are buying their narrative as Sifuna’s wave sweeps through the region.

In the last few weeks, the tone has changed, the efforts to refresh grassroots political networks have intensified, political promises have ballooned, and the desperation is loud as President Ruto throws his best foot forward in an ambitious drive to clip the wings of Sifuna.

What makes the latest developments significant is not simply Sifuna’s declaration that he wants a bigger national role, but the speed with which his Linda Mwananchi movement has penetrated the political conversation across Western Kenya.

Political analyst Martin Andati argues that the President's camp appeared increasingly concerned about the ground Sifuna had gained in Western Kenya in a relatively short period.

"Sifuna has achieved great work in a very short time, and it is a big headache to Ruto and his team. To try to recapture the shaky ground, Ruto has been forced to unleash his team and mercenaries on the ground to try and counter what Sifuna has done, but it is not a walk in the park," Andati says. 

The response from State House and its allies has been difficult to miss.

So urgent is the mission that the political prodigal son and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who has been missing in action, has abandoned the comfort of Nairobi and international trips to push back against Linda Mwananchi’s incursions and augment President Ruto’s own efforts. His attempt, however, faces a treacherous road for a man who even abandoned his party, Amani National Coalition, losing considerable grassroots networks, to enjoy state trappings through Ruto’s UDA.

One of the clearest examples was last week when he made the decision to hold the 98th Kenya Music and Cultural Festivals State Concert at Bungoma State Lodge rather than follow the familiar tradition of bringing outstanding students to State House in Nairobi.

The President had to come into a region where Sifuna had just demonstrated considerable mobilisation power, surrounded by local political leaders and directly engaging residents.

His message was clear. Sifuna is a non-starter and a political project of the former President Uhuru Kenyatta. It remains to be seen if his narrative will change hearts but observers believe a wind of change is sweeping through the region and the president is in a precarious position.

The President subsequently visited Nzoia Sugar Company and later addressed rallies, including at Bukembe in Bungoma, as the government sought to reinforce its presence on the ground.

Ruto took an indirect swipe at Sifuna, portraying his political activities as the work of people moving around the country rather than leaders focused on development.

Soon after the President left for Nairobi, Mudavadi joined Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa, Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, Vihiga Governor Wilber Ottichilo and Busia Governor Paul Otuoma in a joint engagement with local media houses to highlight government projects and rally support for the administration.

The four governors are expected to play a central role in activating the government's grassroots campaign as Mudavadi, Wetang'ula and other senior Kenya Kwanza leaders criss-cross Western Kenya seeking to strengthen Ruto's support ahead of the elections.

The President's allies have also rolled out parallel grassroots initiatives in different parts of the region.

On Saturday, Mudavadi led political engagements in Kakamega town, including the launch of the Magharibi Lobby Group Movement, which its organisers said would champion the government's agenda and mobilise support for Ruto.

At Murhanda Grounds in Shinyalu Constituency, Ikolomani MP Bernard Shinali, Lurambi MP Titus Khamala, Malava MP David Ndakwa, Shinyalu MP Fred Ikana, Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe and Matungu MP Peter Oscar Nabulindo pitched camp for a bullfighting empowerment programme.

The event, however, was characterised by competing interests, with some residents demanding the presence of Governor Barasa and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale.

Others turned their attention to local development issues, criticising their area MP over what they said was the slow progress in lobbying for the Kakamega Airstrip-Kaimosi-Chepsonoi road.

In Likuyani, Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum Opiyo Wandayi and Likuyani MP Innocent Mugabe led a People's Baraza, using the forum to engage residents and advance the administration's development agenda.

Mudavadi, meanwhile, dismissed concerns that the emergence of younger leaders such as Sifuna could divide Western Kenya.

"We have seen many popular leaders like Martin Shikuku and Masinde Muliro. They rose and vanished but the region remained united. We are not against the upcoming leaders but they should know that young leaders must give respect to senior leaders in order to get experience and after our exit they can now take over and that is the nature of politics," Mudavadi said.

He said Western Kenya's political conversation should be anchored on development rather than rhetoric and populism.

"Western Kenya's story must be told through results such as roads that connect people, hospitals that save lives, industries that create jobs and investments that put money in people's pockets and not merely rhetoric and populism," he said.

The Linda Mwananchi caravan has in recent weeks moved through Trans Nzoia, Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma, where thousands gathered for what was billed as Sifuna’s homecoming and the launch of his presidential journey.

The rebellion led by the former ODM secretary-general has evolved into a movement that appears to be keeping the government camp on its toes.

Analysts argue that this is where the anxiety in the government camp appears to have begun.

“Sifuna has built his appeal around a simple political proposition: that the Ruto administration has failed ordinary Kenyans and that the 2027 election should become a referendum on the President’s performance,” notes political commentator David Owino.

Sifuna’s opposition has focused on economic hardship, unemployment, taxation, health problems and alleged police excesses, which he presents as evidence of failures by the Kenya Kwanza administration.

During a rally in Kakamega, Sifuna told residents: “There are reasons we are saying Ruto must go. He is manufacturing victims of police violence more than he can compensate them.”

Sifuna has also turned the Affordable Housing Programme into a political weapon, questioning its relevance to ordinary Kenyans and linking the government’s priorities to the broader debate over taxation and the cost of living.

His Western Kenya network includes Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Bumula MP Jack Wamboka, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale and other leaders who have increasingly positioned themselves against the government’s attempt to consolidate the region behind Ruto.

That combination has unsettled the traditional political hierarchy and forced Ruto’s Western Kenya allies into a counter-offensive.

The most revealing part of the story is what happened after Sifuna’s grand entry into Bungoma.

The President himself began appearing in Western Kenya with unusual frequency.

On July 26, as Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi caravan swept through Bungoma, drawing crowds at Kiminini, Kimilili, Chwele and eventually Bungoma town, President Ruto was only a few dozen kilometres away in neighbouring Busia County.

The political class appears to have realised that Western Kenya cannot simply be assumed to remain in the Ruto column after the death of Raila Odinga and the working relationship with the Orange Democratic Movement.

The government has also leaned heavily on governors and other regional leaders.

Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka has been at the forefront of the Ruto re-election machinery, while Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa has increasingly taken a more visible position within the pro-government political camp.

They have sought to reassure voters that Western Kenya is benefiting from the Kenya Kwanza administration and that continued cooperation with Ruto offers the region a better chance of securing national influence.

The most immediate political panic reaction has come from Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, one of Ruto’s most vocal defenders in Bungoma.

Barasa and Sifuna have already developed a highly visible political rivalry.

Barasa has subsequently intensified his grassroots activity, including parallel rallies and meetings designed to reinforce the Kenya Kwanza presence in the county.

Even before Sifuna’s homecoming, Barasa had been organising separate rallies in Bungoma as opposition activity intensified, with the two political camps sometimes holding events only kilometres apart.

But the timing of the meeting was impossible to separate from the political contest unfolding in Bungoma.

Ruto’s personal aide Farouk Kibet has also become an increasingly visible figure in Western Kenya and is part of the personnel Ruto has deployed to stop a bad situation from going worse.

Kibet and other politicians have been travelling through constituencies, attending empowerment programmes and supporting women, youth and boda boda groups.

His activities have been interpreted as part of the wider effort to strengthen the government’s grassroots network at a time when Sifuna is building his own.

 Kibet has previously endorsed Mudavadi and Wetang’ula as leaders capable of succeeding Ruto in 2032, effectively giving the region a post-Ruto political incentive to remain within the Kenya Kwanza camp.

The five-county bloc of Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia had about 2.62 million registered voters in the 2022 election.

 Political analyst Moses Ombayo has described the development as a disruption of the traditional Western political structure.

“Sifuna has disrupted the political status quo in Western Kenya. His emergence has compelled established leaders to rethink their mobilisation strategies because the region is no longer politically predictable,” Ombayo said.