Opposition unity push boosts Kalonzo's 2027 poll prospects

United Opposition rally in Machakos. [Erastus Mulwa, Standard]

The United Opposition’s recent high-stakes tour of the Ukambani region has firmly positioned Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the outfit’s likely presidential flag bearer ahead of the 2027 elections.

Yesterday's tour, which covered areas of Kitui, Makueni and Machakos counties, acted as a formal, choreographed endorsement of Kalonzo’s presidential bid by his allies.

This comes at a time when the opposition has hinted that it will proceed with a three-day retreat between the last week of April and the first week of May to decide on the criteria for settling on its flag bearer.

During the tour, Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, Jubilee Party deputy leader Fred Matiang’i, Democratic Party’s Justin Muturi, Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa and a host of other leaders traversed the region, campaigning to secure a unified voting bloc and cement Kalonzo’s position as the region’s undisputed leader.

Throughout the rallies, including at major stops such as Matuu and Machakos town, Kalonzo rallied supporters under the theme “It is coming home”, suggesting that an internal agreement already favours his candidacy. Gachagua, Wamalwa, Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara and former Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti also endorsed Kalonzo’s presidential bid, signalling that the opposition is coalescing around the veteran politician to take on President William President Ruto.

“Gachagua urged the crowds to safeguard a potential Kalonzo presidency by ensuring that a majority of leaders elected to other positions are from the united opposition.

“Where I come from, we do not spare eggs when killing a snake. As you kick out President Ruto in the ballot, you also need to send his allies home. Kalonzo needs a loyal army for him to succeed. He needs a Wiper governor, senator, woman representative, MP and MCA. We are heading to a point where a leader must have loyal leaders around him so that he does not run into trouble. I ran into trouble because my friends were traitors,” Gachagua stated.

Professor of management and leadership Gitile Naituli said the utterances of the leaders were indicative of the likely path they would take, while also reflecting their strengthened unity against Ruto.

“The tour, while depicting a united front, also demonstrated that the opposition is intent on avoiding fragmentation by identifying a single candidate to spearhead their ‘one-term’ campaign,” he observed.

“Kalonzo is contributing around 2.3 million votes. As a presidential candidate, if the Mt Kenya region, which has historically been critical in determining the next President supports him, then voters from the Ukambani region will also ensure a turnout of up to 90 per cent during the polls,” added Naituli.

He also opined that with the recent closing of ranks between Kalonzo, Gachagua and former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the formation had little option but to mount a formidable challenge against Ruto.

“This time, I do not think the opposition will split because the cost is too high. The cost of splitting outweighs any benefit that anyone from the opposition would gain by leaving the political formation,” said Naituli.

A formal announcement of Kalonzo’s candidature has, however, yet to be made, in what appears to be a calculated attempt by the opposition to keep the Ruto administration guessing.

According to a source privy to The Standard, the retreat is expected to take place before Gachagua departs for the United Kingdom, where he will engage in a charm offensive targeting the Kenyan diaspora ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The Standard can confirm that a special team tasked with developing a winning opposition line-up ahead of 2027 has proposed three options, all of which place Kalonzo as the preferred flag bearer.

The first line-up includes Kalonzo as the presidential flag bearer, Matiang’i as the running mate and Gachagua as Prime Cabinet Secretary. Martha Karua would assume the position of National Assembly Speaker, Eugene Wamalwa, Senate Speaker and Justin Muturi, Attorney General. 

The second option still places Kalonzo as the preferred presidential candidate, but with Eugene Wamalwa as the running mate and Matiang’i as Senate Speaker. The third option involves Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya being picked as Kalonzo’s running mate in a bid to consolidate support from the vote-rich western region.

“Such an arrangement will deliver the presidency because it will avoid a split within the united opposition. It will also make sense because, despite not being President, Gachagua will remain significant in his role due to his personality,” added Naituli.

It remains to be seen whether the opposition will be bold enough to announce its line-up with 15 months left until the general election, or wait until the final stretch of the 2027 campaigns. Last year, Kalonzo said the opposition would name its candidate in the first quarter of 2026, but Gachagua later contradicted him, saying the opposition is in no rush.