Four years of Ruto: Landmark gains or a legacy of pain? The battle for 2027 begins
National
By
Ndungu Gachane
| Sep 21, 2026
As President William Ruto enters his fifth year in office, the verdict on his tenure remains deeply polarised. Whether the Kenya Kwanza administration has been a success or a failure depends largely on where political players sit, what the President touts as transformative achievements, his critics condemn as catastrophic failures.
President Ruto has defended his legacy saying his administration has corrected historical wrongs in three key sectors: affordable housing, education, and healthcare.
The government points to inflation, which stood at about 9.2 per cent when Ruto took office and eased to around 4.1–4.5 per cent in early 2026, staying within the Central Bank's target band, while the shilling has stabilised around Sh129 to the dollar.
However, the disinflation narrative has since come under pressure, as recent inflation data shows it hitting 6.6 per cent in August 2026, up from 6.5 per cent in July, driven largely by soaring transport and food costs, piling fresh pressure on the administration just under a year before the 2027 vote.
In Agriculture sector, a fertiliser subsidy brought the price of a 50-kilogramme bag down from over Sh7,000 in 2022 to Sh2,500 (and further, to Sh2,000, from September 2026), while the government records the price of a 2-kilogramme packet of sifted maize flour at roughly Sh153.
Since September 2022, the government reports the construction of over 8,000 housing units, the hiring of over 100,000 teachers, a figure that has since risen to roughly 124,000 following further recruitment rounds through mid-2026, and the launch of the Social Health Authority (SHA) to replace the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF). Speaking in July, the President maintained that these achievements prove Kenya can change course.
His loyalists argue that the Kenya Kwanza administration has achieved in four years what previous regimes failed to do since independence. The President frequently links the housing program to job creation and positive economic growth, positioning it as a cornerstone of his legacy.
However, these flagship programs have become the primary targets of Opposition fire who argue that the reality on the ground contradicts the President's numbers.
The debate over the SHA has become a political battleground after government data revealed 32.3 million Kenyans have registered with SHA, only an estimated 5 million members are actively remitting monthly premiums.
This leaves about 80 percent of the registered population relying on a tiny pool of active contributors, creating severe cash flow pressures that slow down hospital claim settlements.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has threatened to abolish the scheme, citing systemic failures. The Opposition views the transition from NHIF to SHA not as an upgrade, but as a disruption that has left millions of patients stranded.
Similarly, the Affordable Housing scheme faces intense scrutiny with independent fact-checking questioning the administration's claims. Further, there is a crucial difference between homes under construction and homes completed and occupied. Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah has filed a petition to stop further payments under a multibillion-shilling project to a private firm, arguing that the current trajectory hurts public interest.
While the government focuses on development projects, the Opposition and analysts point to macroeconomic indicators they describe as disastrous.
Critics cite the high cost of living, heavy taxation, rising national debt, unemployment, and corruption as President Ruto's biggest undoing. Nyandarua Senator John Methu argues that the administration has centralized power, weakening independent state offices. "If Ruto deserves another term, what measurable improvement has the ordinary Kenyan seen?" Methu challenged, calling on the President to publish a detailed scorecard of delivered promises.
A TIFA Research poll released in early this month found that 76 per cent of Kenyans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, the highest negative rating recorded in TIFA's tracking series, with only 15 per cent saying Kenya is headed in the right direction. 65 per cent said their personal or family economic situation had worsened since the 2022 election, while only 12 per cent said their circumstances had improved. Unemployment and poverty are now the biggest problems facing the country, cited by 44 per cent of respondents, followed by inflation, high prices and high taxes at 25 per cent.
Safina Party Leader Jimmy Wanjigi argues the administration has gotten it "completely wrong" on public debt. According to the Controller of Budget, Kenya's public debt stock stood at Sh12.82 trillion as of March 31, 2026, equivalent to about 70 per cent of GDP, exceeding the 55 per cent threshold approved by Parliament. The International Monetary Fund projects the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise further to 71.6 per cent in 2026 and 72.4 per cent in 2027. The allocation for servicing public debt in the 2025/26 financial year amounted to Sh1.90 trillion, representing 89 per cent of the Consolidated Fund Services budgetary allocation, leaving very little for development.
Political analyst Joseph Makau points to a governance crisis defined by scandal. He cites controversies involving fake fertilizer, KEMSA mosquito net procurement, the eCitizen revenue loss, an edible oil import deal, and the Adani infrastructure controversies.
"Since independence, the country has never been subjected to multiple scandals such as the ones we have experienced under Ruto's government," Makau said, noting that these issues have severely damaged public trust.
The most scathing indictment of the administration comes from within, specifically from former Deputy President who described the last four years as "extreme pain" for Kenyans.
He criticized the new higher education funding model for causing confusion and financial pain, and accused the government of straining primary and secondary school capitation.
"From strained payslips to collapsing university education. From businesses closing down to the surviving ones being hunted down by KRA," Gachagua said. "Literally, every national sub-sector is on its knees."
Gachagua's rhetoric, claiming the only thing working in Kenya is "soothing the insatiable greed of Mr. Ruto and his cabal," signals a contentious political landscape.
As President Ruto enters his fifth year, the 2027 election will likely be a referendum on the "Ruto Doctrine." If the government can successfully convince voters that the housing units, SHA, and economic growth are tangible realities, the President may secure a second term.