Which Singapore? Controller of Budget downplays Ruto's dream

Controller of Budget Margaret Nyakang'o and Institute of Public Finance's Daniel Ndirangu during release of the state of the Kenyan Economy report in Nairobi, on January 22, 2026. [David Gichuru, Standard]

The Controller of Budget has watered down President William Ruto’s ambition to transform Kenya into a “Singapore-like” economy, warning that the vision is unattainable as long as fiscal projections remain disconnected from citizens’ lived realities.

CoB Margaret Nyakang’o said Kenya risks becoming a “puppet” of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if it continues to overlook persistent credibility and implementation gaps in its fiscal framework.

Speaking during the launch of the Macro Fiscal Analytic Snapshot (MFAS) by the Institute of Public Finance (IPF), Dr Nyakang’o noted that rising household vulnerability, low wages and elevated poverty levels undermine the feasibility of the Singapore dream.

“How can we talk about becoming Singapore when poverty remains unacceptably high and its decline is painfully slow?” she posed, adding that public resources must be deliberately deployed to improve living conditions.

“Our reliance on the IMF can weaken domestic policy ownership, making reforms difficult to sustain once programmes end. We should not become puppets,” she said.

Nyakang’o urged the government to critically assess IMF conditionalities, which often involve rapid fiscal tightening, constrained social spending, restricted development expenditure and heightened political resistance.

President William Ruto during the NYOTA project rollout in Meru County. [PCS]

“Front-loaded austerity can suppress household welfare and slow economic growth altogether,” she warned.

IPF Chief Executive Officer Daniel Ndirangu said that Kenya’s public finance trajectory is edging towards an economic crisis.

“This has created a survivalist economy, where people are merely getting by day to day, with no real economic transformation or productivity gains,” Ndirangu said.

The past year, he noted, was characterised by weak job creation, with growth concentrated in agriculture and services—sectors dominated by informality, low wages and limited employment opportunities.

“Compared to its regional peers, Kenya shows ambition in fiscal consolidation, but repeated revisions expose credibility challenges and implementation risks in the medium-term fiscal strategy,” Ndirangu added.

IPF experts warned that poverty and inequality could deepen if economic growth continues to exclude informal workers, women, youth and climate-vulnerable communities.

IPF urged the government to act urgently—well ahead of the 2027 General Election—to cushion Kenyans from the economic disruptions that typically accompany heightened political activity.

Historically, Kenya’s election cycles have been marked by uncertainty, delayed investments and slowed economic growth, factors that could derail economic momentum. While Kenya’s GDP growth is gradually stabilising and investment is recovering, IPF warned that the 2027 polls pose a significant economic risk.

President William Ruto during the NYOTA project rollout in Meru County. [PCS]

“Economic stability has not translated into shared prosperity,” Nyakang’o said. “While Kenya’s economy remains relatively resilient, medium-term growth is projected at about five per cent, supported by agriculture, easing inflation and improved macroeconomic stability.”

However, IPF cautioned that this outlook hinges on political campaigns in the election year not triggering adverse economic shocks.

For many Kenyans, macroeconomic stability has instead meant higher living costs, declining real incomes, limited employment opportunities and reduced access to essential public services.

 Already, an IPF report shows that household incomes have fallen by four per cent, eroding purchasing power. Real wages per employee declined from Sh696,817 to Sh665,418 in 2024, equivalent to a drop in daily income from Sh1,900 to Sh1,600. This could drop further if enough measures are not put in place.