Opinion

One of the emerging fields in academia is simulation and heuristics. In simulations, we use data (and computers) to demonstrate how a system would behave if some parameters changed.

A good example, how demand will change if the price goes up or down? How will decisions in a court case change if new evidence is introduced (remember moots).  Heuristics come in handy when there is no data, when experience, rules of the thumb or trial and error are used to make decisions.

Curiously, some of the most significant decisions in our lives were made through heuristics.

How did you get a wife? Decide on your current residence? Your next meal? Without precedents, we shift to heuristics. And it seems artificial intelligence (AI) has given heuristics a new lease of life. Both heuristics and simulations are used in every sector; agriculture, telcos, marketing, logistics, aviation, among others. 

In Kenya, simulation and heuristics are missing in the transport and road sector. Pangani best exemplifies this. It’s an intersection of several roads. One from Muthaiga, Kiambu and Thika. Add Mathare and Outer ring, all the way to Eastern bypass.  The road designers knew this. They could even simulate the number of cars pouring from each road and their speeds.

It was also obvious that once the superhighway was built, more citizens would shift to that side of the town, putting more pressure on the superhighway. We can even estimate the population growth rate and get data on the number of cars registered in Kenya daily.

The convergence of all these roads creates a snarl-up that goes back about three kilometres and lasts till midday. Strangely, after this convergence, the road splits again after about 200 metres into Muranga Road and Wangari Maathai Road.

This road section looks like a vase from the air.  The worst is that vehicles from Kiambu and Muthaiga “must cross “Thika Road from far left to far right into Wangari Maathai Road.   A trip that ought to take 20 minutes takes an hour. In the evening, the snarl-up is replicated towards Thika. It’s reinforced by another at the General Service Unit (GSU) headquarters as vehicles from the Outer Ring Road join Thika Road.

The superness of the superhighway is debatable. Thika superhighway is now 13 years old.

Why don’t we address a visible problem? It is not just roads; “watching” problems is our soft underbelly. Think of the shortage of public schools in Nairobi, parking, parks, water, and other amenities. 

Why can’t the problem at Pangani be resolved? It’s getting worse as more people settle along Thika and Kiambu roads with coffee estates chopped into plots.

Are we waiting for the dualing of Kiambu Road to redesign Pangani junction? In the long term, how about an expressway “over “Thika Road? A rail? 

Whoever designed the Pangani section of the superhighway deserves tea from me. Let him or her talk to me.