Real winners and losers of November by-elections contest

President William Rutos aid Farouk Kibet and UDA candidate David Indakwa seek God's God's intervention during funds drive for Butali Salvation Army church in Malava on October 5,2025. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard] The just concluded 24 by-elections have been a barometer to gauge politics of 2027, even as politicians seek to position themselves in various camps. There were 7 by-elections for positions of MP, including 1 senate and 6 for National Assembly, while the electoral agency conducted 17 by-elections for positions of MCA. In the 7 by-elections for MP, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) scooped 4 positions, where they fielded candidates, while their counterpart in the Broad-based arrangement, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), won all the 3 seats where they fielded candidates. Equally, in the 17 ward by-elections, UDA won 7 seats; the Democratic For The Citizens Party (DCP) won 3; the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 2; Wiper Patriotic Front won 1; ODM won 1; FORD-Kenya won 1; the People's Democratic Party (PDP) won 1; and 1 seat was won by an independent candidate. Looking at the victories declared by the IEBC, Broad based partners, UDA and ODM, emerged as the clear winners of the by-elections boasting a 66.6 per cent win. This victory has, most certainly, sent the United Opposition back to the drawing board with a slow puncher. While Rigathi Gachagua's DCP struggled to, at least, win 3 MCA seats, DAP-K of Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya suffered a major blow bringing to question the strength of the party within the United Opposition. Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper, and the new entrant on the national stage, former CS Fred Matiang'i, registered significant wins in their respective regions. The performance by Kalonzo and Matiang'i, in their regions, could checkmate the hubris and dominance of former DP Rigathi Gachagua in the opposition. However, questions abound on the meaning of these by-elections to the regional politics of Western Kenya, Mt Kenya, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Coastal Kenya. While ODM maintained their strong command of Nyanza and Coast, this victory means more to Gladys Wanga and Abdulswamad Nassir who have fought with all their might and strength to cement their leadership within ODM. By winning in Magarini, Kasipul and Ugunja, ODM's experts in government, namely, Ali Hassan Joho, John Mbadi, and Opiyo Wandayi can breathe a sigh of relief. However, the defeat of an ODM candidate in Kariobangi North questions political strength of Senator Edwin Sifuna who had been on the ground. While Gachagua has reason to celebrate the 3 MCA positions won by DCP, the defeat of a DP candidate in Mbeere North where Gachagua led the campaigns, brings to question his ability to sway the larger Mt Kenya vote against President Ruto and his Deputy Kithure Kindiki. Gachagua, and not Justin Muturi or Newton Kariuki, has been left with an egg on the face following the narrow yet decisive victory of UDA in Mbeere North. Kindiki has shown his intellectual muscle and the fiery stuff by delivering the Mbeere North seat to Ruto. Just like Gachagua, the DAP-K formation led by Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya might have had a false start in shifting the political base of Western Kenya towards them, even as unity within the DAP-K remained a major concern during the Malava by-election.

Real winners and losers of November by-elections contest

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