Realignments in NEP could boost Orange fortunes

By Abdikadir Sugow

ODM has made a major political gain and now looks like the party to beat in North Eastern Province, with the defection of potential rivals to its ranks.

The sudden defection of Fafi MP Aden Sugow (Kanu but recently allied to TNA) and a host of local politicians, including former legislators, has changed the political direction of residents, throwing a spanner into the works of the Jubilee Coalition.

Sugow, an Assistant Minister for Public Service, brings on board the ODM ship a significant pool of constituents, drawn from five constituencies in Garissa County, which were initially leaning towards Jubilee (TNA and URP).

Voter numbers

The constituencies include Garissa Township with 31,366 registered voters, Dadaab (19,316), Balambala (18,883), Fafi (17,533), and Ijara (16,495). Lagdera, with 12,573 registered voters, and the only other constituency in the county is already an ODM territory, with its current MP being the Deputy Speaker Farah Maalim.

Accompanying Sugow to Uhuru Park during the launch of the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (Cord) yesterday were potential aspirants who have done their ground work in readiness for the elections, including Mohamed Moulid Shurie (seeking to become Garissa Governor), Mohamed Dahiye Duale (Dadaab), Abdikadir Omar (Balambala), Bishar Ibrahim Abass (Ijara), Abdirahim Farah Jari, and Omar Sheikh Ali alias ‘Toto’ of Garissa Township.

Despite its relatively lower number of voters compared to the rest of the country, the vast region has suddenly become a focal point and hunting ground for the major presidential contenders in March 4 elections.

Sugow has consolidated support among his dominant Abduwak clan who determine the direction of local politics.

The Fafi MP will be a great asset to ODM and Cord, not only because of his personal influence, but the immense weight the name of his late father, Senior Chief Sugow Ahmed holds in the community and the region.

The elder Sugow was once a political detainee with the likes of renowned politician the late ‘people’s watchman Martin Shikuku and novelist Ngugi wa Thiong’o.

North Eastern Province’s geopolitical significance has been reinforced by the constitutional creation of the three counties of Mandera, Garissa and Wajir, giving the ongoing political campaigns an added twist of new positions of governor and senator. Key positions have attracted heated political competition and schemes as much as in the perennially fiercely contested MPs’ seats (NEP has seven new constituencies for a total of 18).

Intense lobbying continues dictated by complex dynamics of old loyalties, personalities and new ideological leanings. Because of strategic regional positioning and the dimensions of the new constitutional dispensation, the province is one of the regions that will determine who becomes the fourth President of Kenya and any candidate will ignore the region at their own peril.

Going flat out

The main presidential hopefuls are expected to go flat out on a vote hunting expedition ahead of the elections. In the mind of each presidential candidate will be the 347,457 voters registered by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries (IEBC).

Despite the relatively lower number of voters, every presidential candidate knows that the province will come in handy in the requirement of 25 per cent of votes in five provinces, let alone the swing vote that could tilt the balance for the 51 per cent rule for an outright win or in a run-off.

Also in ODM’s team in the region is Ibrahim Rashid Ahmed, a commissioner of the party’s National Elections Board. Ahmed was the party’s coordinator in the region during the 2007 General Election and was a top founding member of the ODM UK Chapter.

Wiper will look to Nominated MP Mohammed Abdi Affey and ex-MP Ibrahim Salat, who is contemplating to vie for either the newly created Balambala constituency or Garissa County Senator, to lead its search for votes.

URP has Dujis MP Aden Bare Duale (Garissa County), Mandera East MP Mohamed Hussein Ali alias Qaras (Mandera County) and immediate PNU treasurer and a former Cabinet minister Mohammud Mohammed Abdi (Wajir County).