Good seasons can fuel pastoralist conflict too, study finds

Cattle engage in a friendly fight next to a water pan on June 29, 2024. [Stafford Ondego, Standard]

Good rains may bring relief from drought, but they can also fuel conflict among pastoralist communities by increasing livestock values, shifting migration patterns and intensifying competition over grazing resources, a study has found.

Speaking during a science summit hosted by the Landscape Alliance, Dr Ken Mashisia Shikuku, a senior scientist who conducted the research, said the relationship between climate and conflict is more complex than the assumption that violence is driven only by scarcity.

During poor seasons, dwindling pasture and water supplies force herders to move farther from traditional grazing areas, sometimes into territories claimed or occupied by other communities.

“Migration is common. It is part of the livelihoods, so it is common to move with livestock,” Dr Shikuku said.

But when drought pushes herders beyond their usual grazing areas, competition can escalate into livestock raids and retaliation.

Armed herdsman. [File, Standard]

“One community steals animals from the other, and what is also common is that there is a revenge raid where the community that was raided also plans to retaliate,” he said.

The study, which combined household data with satellite vegetation measurements, found that unusually good seasons can also be followed by increased violence.

“When the season is good, the condition of the animals improves and the value of livestock goes up,” Dr Shikuku said.

Improved pasture can change migration patterns while higher livestock values can increase the economic stakes around livestock theft.

“The mechanism is obviously different, but you cannot assume that conflict is only about scarcity,” he said.

The findings suggest that climate conditions affect conflict through several pathways, including resource availability, livestock movements and the economic value of animals.

The research also examined livestock insurance as a way of helping households absorb climate-related losses. Index-based insurance uses indicators such as vegetation conditions to trigger payouts when drought threatens livestock.

“There is an opportunity to use insurance to help households cope with climate shocks,” Dr Shikuku said.

However, insurance alone cannot resolve disputes over grazing land and water. The study points to the importance of negotiated grazing arrangements, better management of shared resources and alternative economic opportunities for young people.

Philip Osano, Chief Operating Officer of Landscape Alliance, said scientific evidence should guide responses to climate and development challenges.

“Science must underpin Africa’s development decisions, ensuring that evidence guides investments and solutions to the continent’s development challenges,” Osano said.

He called for stronger links between researchers and policymakers.

“Stronger engagement between scientists and legislators is needed to ensure that scientific evidence informs policy, legislation and development decisions,” he said.

The research challenges policymakers to look beyond drought when addressing climate-related conflict. A poor season can intensify competition by reducing pasture and water, while an exceptionally good season can increase livestock wealth and alter movement patterns, creating different pressures that can also contribute to conflict.