Fooling Kenyans: Ruto-Raila deal about power and survival

President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga after signing a political agreement at KICC, Nairobi, on March 7, 2025. [File, Standard] The broad-based government has been in place for over seven months now, with President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga claiming it is progressively steering the country towards a transformative agenda. Having formalised their political union earlier this month, questions abound as to whether Raila will still pursue another presidential bid, a position he has contested and lost five times. Last week, Raila said that President Ruto had requested his assistance in stabilising the country and addressing its pressing challenges. While some have supported the new political alliance, others remain sceptical about the arrangement. "Many people are complaining that Raila has gone to Ruto, that he has left us... I did not go to Ruto; he came to me. My stance has not changed, I am still fighting for Kenyans. We cannot just sit and watch the country go astray," he said in Kiambu last week. Ruto insists that the alliance with his main rival in the 2022 election is aimed at uniting and transforming the country. "We are one people, one nation with a common destiny. It is my duty to work with all leaders. Raila is the foremost patriot who has shown that Kenya's progress is paramount. I urge all leaders to step forward, set aside their political interests, and unite with us in taking Kenya forward," Ruto said during his tour of Nairobi last week. He added: "We can disagree on policies, programmes, and how to implement them, but we should never disagree on the destiny of the country. We can find common ground on important matters that are good for Kenya." The working relationship between Ruto and Raila began during last year's Gen Z-led anti-Finance Bill 2024 protests, particularly following the breach of Parliament by protesters on June 25. While Ruto condemned the invasion, he pledged to continue the conversation with young people on pertinent issues and promised to champion issue-based, policy-oriented engagements. "The event marked a critical turning point in how we respond to grave threats to our national security. I assure the nation that the government has mobilised all available resources to ensure that such a situation does not recur," the President said. He also declined to sign the contentious Finance Bill into law, calling for its withdrawal and pledging to follow the people's wishes. A few days later, Ruto held a media interview at State House, where he sought to address the people's concerns and promised more engagement. Ruto then met Raila and his team, announcing that they had agreed to convene a forum consisting of religious communities, civil society, professional groups, political parties, and other stakeholders. The forum, which was initially scheduled to run for six days, aimed to provide a platform for proposing a way forward for the country. However, the meeting never took place. Status quo Ruto later met with Raila and his ODM team, and they agreed to hold further consultations. "I am happy to confirm that we have had consultations and agreed that dialogue is the way forward out of the crisis we are facing. We have agreed to give people an opportunity to express themselves, voice their grievances, and find lasting solutions," Raila said after a meeting in July. Soon after, Ruto dissolved his Cabinet, marking the beginning of the so-called broad-based government. However, many Kenyans continue to question whether this arrangement will address their challenges or simply maintain the status quo. Political analyst Prof. Peter Kagwanja says Raila is no stranger to post-election alliances after losing a presidential contest. He pointed out that Raila has built a sprawling political empire, which he cannot maintain outside of government - from his supporters at the Coast to those in Nyanza, Western Kenya and in Nairobi. "It is not a surprise that after losing the 1997 election, he joined President Daniel arap Moi's government and was appointed to the Cabinet with some of his close associates," he told The Standard yesterday. "In 2002, he joined Mwai Kibaki's government, and after the controversial 2007 election, he forced his way into the Kibaki government. The same happened in 2018 when he had a handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta," he explained. Kagwanja added that it should not be surprising that, after a bitter election contest with Ruto and the subsequent "Sufuria" protests over the high cost of living in 2023, Raila ended up teaming up with him. "Raila is no newcomer to what we call 'gunship diplomacy', where the government becomes unstable and the only way to stabilise it is by working with the enemy. This executive power-sharing arrangement has come at the cost of incitement, protests, violence, and blackmail," he said. Gachagua factor Kagwanja further stated that Ruto was pushed to work with Raila due to the instability within his government, which was partly caused by a fallout with his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua. He explained that Gachagua had become assertive and resistant to Ruto's attempts to split Mt Kenya, frustrating the President, who knew he was losing 47 per cent of the votes that had brought him to power. "Ruto had to act swiftly. If Gachagua took control of UDA in Mt Kenya, it could have jeopardised Ruto's ability to govern and pass bills. Working with Raila was a pre-emptive measure to stabilise his administration," Kagwanja said. He dismissed reports that Ruto and Raila had not formed a formal coalition, calling the move "conmanship," pointing out discrepancies in the date of the document that was signed. "I'm not surprised that Raila did not accompany the President during his whistle-stop tour of Nairobi. Only a few of his (Raila) allies were present," he said. However, another analyst, Barrack Muluka, argues that it does not matter who extended the invitation, but rather that they are now both in government. "It doesn't matter who invited whom, what matters is that they are together in government. The issue of who called who is irrelevant and not worth our time," he said. Muluka added that Raila must stop pretending that he is not in government, as he has clearly benefited from the arrangement. "He has key positions, including the Finance and Energy Ministries, control over the budget committee, and other powerful committees. He is more in than out," Muluka said. Dennis Kabaara, a consultant, believes the unity between Ruto and Raila is about political survival and maintaining the status quo. "To me, their coming together is about survival. Politics in Kenya is built around preserving the status quo, and this has happened before. There is a way we do politics to avoid war," he explained. Kabaara added that the pact, based on ten major issues, should be implemented if the two leaders are serious about transformation. Coup claim He also recounted the events of 2005, when President Kibaki sacked his Cabinet, ending the Government of National Unity (GNU), and said the current arrangement is closer to Kibaki's GNU than the 2018 handshake with Uhuru. "Raila is helping Ruto stabilise his government so that he can continue with his agenda. Whether it will work politically remains to be seen, as Kenyans are not happy about this arrangement," he said. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence has issued a statement dismissing reports attributed to Raila, claiming he had saved Ruto from a military coup. "The Ministry categorically states that these claims are false, baseless, and reckless. The KDF is a professional and apolitical institution committed to integrity, discipline, and service to the nation," read the statement. The Ministry emphasised that the KDF is loyal to the Commander-in-Chief and its duty is to safeguard Kenya's security and wellbeing, free from political influence.

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