UN scientists’ chilling prediction on Kenya over climate

By MOSES MICHIRA

NAIROBI: Kenya is hurtling towards a disastrous phase due to global warming.

The effect would be increased diseases, severe food shortage and massive coastal flooding that would cost Mombasa Sh90 billion in losses by 2030.

A United Nations panel of scientists have made the devastating predictions, saying global warming would also cut maize production in Kenya by a fifth.

Yield on beans, the other staple food in Kenya apart from maize, is estimated to have shrunk by 68 per cent.

Cases of deadly meningitis and malaria epidemics would rise to add misery to a much more impoverished people.

ECONOMIC ASSETS

“In Mombasa, by 2030 the population at risk is estimated to be between 170,700 and 266,300 inhabitants, while economic assets at risk are between Sh58 billion and Sh90 billion,” a report by the panel of scientists reads in part.

Tanzania’s capital Dar es Salaam will also be affected by the rising water levels, though the losses projected in the city would be less severe.

The effects of the decades-long change in climate could be worst on small children, 31 per cent of whom are malnourished across Sub-Saharan Africa.

In 16 years, declining food production and new diseases could have as many as 55 per cent of infants stunted.

Scientists involved in compiling the report said the impact would be felt across the globe, but Africa is disproportionately exposed due its heavy population burden that is both poor and ill-prepared on interventions.

“Climate change and climate variability have the potential to exacerbate or multiply existing threats to human security including food, health and economic insecurity, all being of particular concern for Africa,” they said.

Previous forecasts have given varying timelines on the submergence of Mombasa at between 20 and 50 years.

WATER LEVELS

At stake is the fate of thousands of homes, dozens of tourist hotels and multi-billion shilling worth buildings that could be submerged in the rising water levels.

The alarm is only the latest in a spate of warnings by different environmental entities about the safety of Mombasa, Kenya’s second largest city whose critical portions are on an island in the Indian Ocean.

However, it is the first expert projection to quantify the extent of losses brought about by the rising of global temperatures.

Various studies have shown that the earth is about 2 degrees centigrade hotter when compared to the 1980s, thanks to increased carbon dioxide emissions into the environment that is linked to human activity.

Massive planks of polar ice have melted, now at record levels, and the water flows down to oceans.

Already, there is evidence of declining long rains and worsening drought spells across the country, which has cut food productivity, water for human and livestock consumption, and even pasture. That is in contrast to higher rainfall over the oceans because the waters are increasingly getting hotter and evaporating much faster.

It is expected that the impact of these calamities would significantly increase conflicts as individuals and communities fight over scarce resources and food.

“The degradation of natural resources as a result of both over-exploitation and climate change will contribute to increased conflicts over the distribution of these resources,” the scientist said in their conclusion.

Any declines in the production of both maize and beans could stir a major food security crisis in Kenya, where the two commodities are the most-widely consumed foodstuff.

Rural and poor households are more exposed to these adverse effects of climate change because the bulk of their household budgets are spent on food.

Coffee and bananas are sensitive to higher temperatures because of specific pests that would otherwise not attack the crops in the current conditions.

The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was discussed and approved Monday in Oklahoma, Japan.