Opposition leaders’ 10 million votes mantra is definitely far-fetched

Our ‘politico-biblical’ Joshua appears to be prophesying a miracle for Kenya. He seems to be telling us that for the first time in history, every registered voter will wake up on August 8, and make their way to their respective polling stations to perform their democratic duty. I make this deduction from the fact that Raila Odinga has declared that there will be 10 million votes casts for NASA on election day. One can only assume this number was arrived at by applying the 50 per cent + 1 calculation on the 19 million registered voters, then adding half a million to the result to come up with a clean, rounded-up ‘hashtag-able’ figure.

But there is a problem. When a little logic is applied, three factors negate this assertion. The first is history, the second is the demographic of registered voters and the third is good old common sense. Let us begin with history and interrogate voter turn-out. By way of comparison, world electoral history indicates that a voter turn out of one-hundred percent is unattainable.

Not even in Australia where voting has been compulsory since 1924 nor in countries such as Argentina, Belgium, Cyprus and Ecuador which also impose sanctions on absentee registered voters. Patterns drawn from our own electoral history indicate that national voter turn out averages at 69 per cent since the first multi-party election in 1992. This is the average national turn out we should expect in 2017. According to the latest MVR data, the three NASA strongholds combined only number a total 6.9 million votes. Let us go a step further and subject this figure to the historical ethnic average turn out.

An average of the last five elections shows that the Luo will turn out at 70 per cent (1.6 million votes) , Luhya at 63 per cent (1.6 million votes), and Kamba at 66 per cent (1.3 million votes). NASA’s point of departure on August 8 totals 4.5 million votes.

Not to mention the tangible voter fatigue and apathy from these strongholds. If the 2002 election recorded the lowest voter turn out in our multiparty election history, and yet conditions during that election were most ideal and euphoric to vote out a two-decade long government, then how much worse will the voter turn-out in the 2017 election be? If the Luhya nation turned out at 39 per cent when Kijana Wamalwa was vice president, then what will it be now, with Mudavadi merely holding the position of chief campaign coordinator? If the Kamba nation turned out at 57 per cent when Charity Ngilu was a key principal in the Rainbow coalition, then what will it be now with Kalonzo as Raila’s deputy once again?

The NASA principals appear to be students of history, and having studied previous elections, they have realised that attaining the required voter turn out to defeat Jubilee’s tyranny of numbers is a herculean task. The reality for them is that NASA strongholds have a history of low voter turn out. And so, this is why they have resorted to desperate measures; conditioning the minds of Kenyans to ‘expect’ a turn out of 10 million NASA voters.

Secondly, assuming the 10 million strong narrative were to hold, if we are to look through a realist lens, the bulk of Kenya’s voting pattern will be ethnically determined. A regional allocation of votes between the two main coalitions when put separately does not get anywhere near 10 million. To arrive at 10 million, NASA is deluded into thinking that it has made record breaking inroads into the Kalenjin or GEMA voting blocks.

Political plot line

Having considered these reasons, it occurs to me that NASA’s campaign thrust has not been based on logic, but a message of an idiosyncratic nature. This should, however, not be dismissed as simply delusional. The pie in the sky numbers are meant to serve a sinister purpose. Raila’s intention, once again, is to precipitate a crisis should he not be declared winner. His familiar goal is to force a coalition government. This is why a parallel tallying centre and presidential results being declared final at the constituency level are two core pillars in the NASA election strategy. Relying on violence as an instrument of attaining personal power does not sound ‘Joshua-like’. In fact, Raila’s political plot line is definitely un-biblical. It falls more in the ‘Sword and Sorcerer’ genre of fiction; characterised by heavy elements of fantasy.

—The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University and a Research Fellow at Fort Hall School of Government.

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