Trump's war to erode Arab world global influence and its petrodollar

US President Donald Trump speaks at the FII PRIORITY Summit at the Faena Hotel on March 27, 2026, in Miami Beach, Florida. [AFP] Donald Trump, a self-assured political operator, compares himself to Jesus and has reportedly said positive things about Adolf Hitler. He likes playing dangerously by daring to do the unexpected. Among his desires is to curb the Arabs/Muslims' global influence and to reduce them to that lamentable position that they found themselves in after the 15th-century Spanish 'Reconquista'. Seemingly beholden to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his "Greater Israel" project, Trump forced Iran into war and vowed to make "a whole civilisation 'die' never to be brought back again." The war is multifaceted. Officially, it is about the US and Israel attacking Iran and Iran hitting at American and Israeli interests in the Middle East. There is also intense power rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia that is spiced with nationalism and religious differences over Islam. While the Saudis are Arabs and Sunni Muslims, the Iranians are Persians and Shiite Muslims. The Sunnis, right from the time of the Prophet's death in 632 Common Era (CE), believe that the successor or Calif can be elected from the community of believers, which explains Abu Bakr, Aisha's father and the Prophet's father-in-law, as the first Calif. First successor In contrast, the Shiites believe that the Imam should be of Prophet Muhammad's bloodline through Ali bin Talib, the Prophet's cousin and son-in-law, as the first successor to the Prophet. They also believe that the 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, went into 'occultation' in 874 CE when he was five years old and that he will eventually return to pass judgment. The big nationalist and theological differences between the Saudis and the Iranians, therefore, override their common belief that the Prophet was the Messenger of Allah. Despite disparaging remarks about Arabs and Islam from Trump and his buddies, the Arabs would like to see the Americans reduce Iran to size. In April 2025, Trump bragged to a National Republican Congressional Committee dinner that other countries were competing to "kiss my ass" over tariffs. Roughly a year later, in March 2026, while speaking in Florida to an investment conference, Trump talked of how Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon (MBS) had changed. Last year, Trump stated MBS had not thought that he would be "kissing my ass ... now he has to be nice to me". Steve Bannon, a close Trump ally, accuses the Israelis, the Arabs, and the Europeans of "playing with us." Arab royalties If Americans send ground troops, he says, "I want Arabs at the front" and suggested that Arab royalties send their children to fight the Iranians before the Americans can send ground troops. Bannon wants to shut down the "Dubai 'pirate cove' Iranian money laundering in United Arab Emirates (UAE) now." Thus, the Arabs are willing to tolerate American insults as a price for fixing the Iranians. More than tolerating insults, Arabs suffer Iranian retaliatory bombardments. Iran seemingly adopted a two-step strategy. First was to maintain good relations mostly with the Global South, and second was to target Arab countries that support the US. Being conciliatory to countries that are not directly involved in the war is the Iranian way of leveraging political soft power. Iran has closed the Straits of Hormuz to American vessels, but it allows ships from France and other countries to go through unmolested. This way, it creates a wedge between the US and its supposed allies, who feel that Trump betrays and insults them. China's Xi Jinping watches Trump make many mistakes, which include underestimating Iran's resilience and ability to adjust to adversity. Trump had expected Iran to fall apart within days, but it did not. Instead, there was increased dissonance within the US and comparisons made of Trump with Germany's Hitler. There were, Trump had reportedly told General John Kelley, good qualities in Hitler as he wondered why American generals were not as loyal to him as Nazi generals had been to Hitler. In 2016, Ohio Senator JD Vance observed Trump's semblance to Hitler and being a potential American Hitler. Vance, now vice-president in Trump's second term, struggles to be loyal while distancing himself from Trump's blunders in Iran. The dissonance intensified with War Secretary Pete Hagseth dismissing top American generals for questioning the wisdom of Trump's Iran adventure. The questioning of Trump's policy sobriety was from American generals as well as from top European military officers. Former American four-star generals and admirals issued a statement terming Trump a threat to the US. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had called Trump a fascist. Former Deputy NATO commander General Sir Richard Sherriff dismissed Trump's entire operation as being based on arrogance, lack of strategy, and being just a "gung-ho nutter". Trump insulted French President Emmanuel Macron by claiming that his wife, Bridgette, physically beats him. Macron accused Trump of opening a 'Pandora's Box' by bombing Iran, which, he said, might tempt other countries to do the same to those neighbours they do not like. Trump's repeated orders and insults to other leaders to do what he wants floundered. His demand that South Africa leave Brics an influential coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, cut ties with China, and drop the right of Justice case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, fell flat. His dismissal of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as ''not Churchill " rubbed Britain the wrong way. His threats to grab Canada and Greenland rallied mid-level powers against the US. His call on Iran to surrender failed to produce positive results. Contrary to Trump's expectation, Iran increasingly shot down American jet fighters and created havoc in Arab countries. In targeting Arab countries that support US attacks, Iran's strategy fitted into Bannon's desire to destroy the UAE's "Dubai 'pirate cove''. As a result of Iranian attacks, the thousands of daily flights in and out of Dubai stopped, and many who put money in Dubai are regretting. Since the UAE and other Gulf countries have become the global hub for financial dealings in gold and other minerals, destroying Arab financial and transport infrastructure would shift those dealings to Manhattan, a consequence that would enable Trump to continue boasting of how countries line up to "kiss" his "ass." In attacking and destroying the Arab financial might, Iran might be extending favour to Trump. He has, in the process, forced mid-level powers to redefine who an enemy is and actually think of the US as a potential enemy to their interests. His positive view of Hitler is in line with the New Right's wish to revert to a pre-World War II environment on race and the power of fascism. The Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran, besides hurting Iran, has other consequences. First, the war reduces the Arab and Iranian ability to support the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. The destruction encourages Netanyahu to try and actualise his 'greater Israel' dream by grabbing all 'Biblical' lands. Collective interests Second, it has forced the Conceptual West to rethink its relations with the United States which has become a threat to, rather than a defender of, their collective interests. Third, the war has created friction within the US as generals and political leaders question Trump's sobriety in starting his war with Iran. The danger is that the internal friction might degenerate into a 'socio-political' conflict that would be similar to the civil war of the 1960s over the Vietnam War and Civil Rights. Fourth, the war destroyed Arab countries as global power players that had arisen out of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 'petro-dollar' as global currency. As a result, the global dependence on Arab oil and gas will be substantially reduced because countries are looking for such alternative sources of energy as solar and nuclear. In addition, oil and gas fields in other parts of the world will come into full operation.

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