Kenya in 2026: Drought, debt and politicians itching for a referendum

Kakamega Primary 9 KJSEA candidates during rehearsals on October 24, 2025. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard] Happy 2026! On this first article of the year, we shall keep to the tradition of looking at things or events that may shape the year. Of course, the forecasts here are not the type that can be used as collateral against a bank loan by anyone. This is because, as we have learned in the recent past, a year is a long time for the gods of this world. This leaves us some leg room to accommodate forces of nature or excesses of humanity that can radically redefine the final outcomes of the year. Nevertheless, common wisdom dictates that we can anticipate events that may shape the year so that households and businesses to adjust their plans accordingly. The first event that is likely to shape the outcomes of 2026 starts this coming week with the government handling of the transition under the Competency-Based Education (CBE). Since the release of the Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA), there has been a lot of confusion on the placement criteria to Senior Secondary Schools (SSS) and the funding mechanisms. The difficult reality for parents is why their children will be locked into one of the three pathways of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM), Social Sciences or Arts and Sports Science. Probably giving fodder for the critiques of CBE, do learners have capacity to choose future careers paths at such a young age? Or is the assessment criteria objective enough to scientifically group learners into these pathways? More fundamentally, learners exiting Junior Secondary School (JSS) have been subjected to very different learning environments due to availability of facilities, challenges in deployment and terms of service for JSS teachers, and parents ability to finance CBE materials and engage leaners as demanded by the curriculum. How have these disparities been factored in the final results? In the SSS that learners are joining, has the Teachers Service Commission done staff rationalization based on the different streams? Has the government allocated adequate and equitable capitation for the different streams? For instance, will it cost the same to train a leaner in STEM and those admitted to Social Sciences? Will the money be available in schools when learners report next week? Last term, school capitation was released to schools almost two weeks after schools had closed for the December holidays. In whichever way one may look at it, CBE continues to leave more questions than it answers at every stage. The second event likely to shape 2026 is the looming drought and famine. As the weatherman had predicted, many parts of the country have experienced below-average rainfall. Drought is already ravaging many parts of the Northern Frontier counties. In the lower Eastern region where my roots are, there is total crop failure for the first time in many years. A kilogram of maize in my village is retailing at sh.60, at a time we should be enjoying green maize from the farms. This year, the genius of President Ruto's fertilizer subsidy programmme will be put to test. While the government has taken credit for the relative stability of maize prices in the past three consecutive years on account of fertilizer subsidies, critics have argued that the administration has just had a lucky escape since there has been no major drought over the period. The short rains season now recedes past us with 'empty farms' in most parts of the country. The questions going ahead are: shall we see the return of duty-free maize imports? Will there be another multi-billion maize scandal akin to the miraculous Mexican ship landing in Mombasa with 30,000 tons of maize in May 2017, only hours after CS Treasury signed the duty-free warrant? This especially so given that we are going to an election year. The third factor that is likely going to disrupt the socio-economic order this year is the aftermath of the multi-billion scandal unraveling from Minnesota fraud. So far, evidence from the convicts indicate that billions from the fraud may have ended up in the Kenyan property market. If this is true, then most likely part of the proceeds may have also financed local campaigns in the last election. Given the precarious bilateral relations between Kenya and the United States of America, will the Kenyan authorities cooperate in the investigations? Did all this money enter into the Kenyan market without the knowledge or involvement of senior political or bureaucratic elites in the country? The reason why this crime may negatively impact 2026 outcomes is that unlike the kangaroo business we used to in our local corruption cases, the Trump administration is unlikely to compromise on the investigations regardless of how deep they may bite into ranks of government and local politicos. How will this impact the local real estate market? For a long time, it has widely been acknowledged that the Kenyan real estate market is highly distorted by fraudulent inflows from piracy, instability in neighbouring countries and local corruption networks. It is the first time that there is a big chance that specific properties may be identified and recovered as proceeds of crime in large scale. I can bet that even the Affordable Housing Scheme is not off limits, given the clandestine way the contracts are dished out. More importantly, where will this scandal leave the country in the global ranking or perception as a money laundering hub? Was the scandal limited only to the USA, or were other Western countries targeted too? What is clear for now is that the local real estate market is likely going to be shaken to the core by the time the billions laundered are traced and attached to specific properties. I do not foresee any leeway for the Kenyan authorities to bring about our usual monkey business, especially with President Ruto's dalliance for affection from President Trump. The fourth big agenda for the year is the emerging debate over a referendum. This is especially so considering that it is the government side nursing such ideas. With the ten-point agenda moot with the passing on of Honorable Raila Odinga, which part(s) of the Constitution is the government wing targeting for amendment? Why now? Is there any correlation with the Singapore rhetoric in 20 years? From past experiences, there are rarely any random coincidences in the Kenyan political scene. However, any attempts to alter the Constitution, especially one engineered by the government side, is likely to face fierce resistance in the current prevailing climate. My considered view is that, this administration may be overestimating their luck after surviving the Gen-Z revolution. Fifth is the public debt and innovative financing mechanism that the current administration has become fond of. Faced with a difficult race to show demonstrable physical projects to brag about, the government seems to be in a frenzy to sign new debt contracts and voluntary initiated Public Private Partnerships (PPP). This continued denial of the highly constrained fiscal space is soon going to rare its ugly face. Attempts to fool the public that PPPs do not constitute debt or new taxes of stale. Households and motorists will soon came face to face with the realities of the signed contracts at toll stations. Finally, 2026 is a big year for the sporting world. We start with the Winter Olympics in February before the jackpot of the FIFA World cup in June/July. The question for us here is: after the thrills on the track and field, will our tourism ecosystem be disrupted as tourists re-allocate their incomes to attend these sporting events?

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