Beyond Raila: Will Kenya now face a spectre of political, economic winter?

When President William Ruto and the late Raila Odinga signed an agreement to work together at KICC. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard] Few Kenyans will ever take so much airtime, newspaper pages and national attention as Raila Odinga, in life and death. His death is best captured by a central Kenya proverb given by BD Njuguna: "iraguo yari iria yakwa," loosely translated, It's only after the death of a cow that the owners realise its value, particularly the milk it provided. For Raila, the milk is the political capital. The politicians, his admirers, analysts, columnists, commentators and the masses have had their say. What they said and what they meant will keep us busy for many years to come. Many talked to Raila directly on his funeral day and revealed what he told them. Some took vows on what they will do or not do. My head is still spinning, more so as an African not too removed from our traditions. Whatever was said on the funeral day or in private, we now must face the hard reality, living without Raila but under his long shadow. It is unlikely to shorten with his progeny in strategic political positions. What's next after our well of tears has run dry? Some keen observers ask quietly who will deflate the Raila bubble. His State funeral inflated it further. One is time. His long shadow will shorten with time, just like other great men before him. Other events will overshadow him. We hope for positive events. Two, by mourning a longer period, seven days and adding other commemorative events, fatigue will set in and slowly deflate the bubble. It sounds counterintuitive, but it works. Three, and more importantly, what happens to Kenya's economic and political landscape? Will Kenyan politics enter a long winter? What of the economy? Let's start with politics, where Raila's impact was most felt. Observers will note that Kenya's political landscape has gone through a strange transformation. Single-party led to multipartism, then coalitions, which have been noisy and short-lived. Currently, the ghosts of a single party haunt the country. I suspect it's an inspiration not just from the past but from the east, read China. The success of the Chinese Communist Party in transforming the economy is widely admired in silence. Where does Raila come in this? He had a party through which he kept the establishment busy. We have asked endlessly what will happen to his party. If it's taken over by UDA (United Democratic Alliance), a political winter will set in. Other parties may join to be counted and hope to benefit from appointments. Did you notice the transformation of ODM bigwigs once they got into the sanctum of political power? Remember, Kenya is not like developed countries where alternative and prestigious leadership positions exist in the corporate world. Add joblessness and political positions are a big bait. Less competition Think of the head of Google or Toyota and the position they hold in the national psyche. A political winter will mean less competition, less accountability and political decisions driven by vested, not public interests. And I fear more corruption. Pessimists fear ODM could split into those near the kitchen and those excluded. Remember Ford Asili vs Ford Kenya? Invisible political forces would prefer that. We ask, respectively, why there were so many political vows on RAO's (Raila Amolo Odinga) funeral day. I never heard of any economic vow. The fact that the same players were in single-party, multipartism and coalition makes a political winter more likely. It seems just like in physics, where we aspire for a grand unified theory to explain the forces of nature, we are now likely to get a grand unified theory to explain Kenyan politics. A grand theory, borrowed from sociology, might work better in politics. What appears chaotic in Kenyan politics seems orderly in the long run. Think of it, is incorporating dynasties into the government really that random?A strong opposition could upend the grand theory with an eye on 2027. Let's be blunt: what happens to ODM will depend on its "use" in 2027. Could the party join the opposition if it sees brighter political prospects? What of the economy? We often forget that political liberalisation or multipartism came together with economic liberalisation, the free markets. That made life so difficult for President Moi. We seem to remember the political liberalisation more. On the economic front, recidivism has been muted. Recidivism in politics is towards a single party. Some think the private sector is too vibrant and globally interconnected to "backslide". But the admiration of centralisation of political power could permeate into the economic arena. Political and economic power go together. But there is a problem; Political power is easy to get, just get the votes and you get levers of power through established institutions. Remember the frequent mention of "established institutions" during Gen Z protests? Economic power is harder to get. It takes time to build wealth and the confidence that goes with it. You have to start enterprises and nurture them into maturity. Think of Google, Walmart, Equity Bank, Safaricom, among others. The crowning moment is the initial public offering (IPO). How many have we had in the last 20 years? Public assets That is why political power holders are tempted to shorten the economic journey through access to public assets, including taxes, land, institutions and firms. This access is not always legal. The focus on existing firms, institutions and assets could usher in an economic winter; low growth, few innovations and too much control, which is detrimental to economic growth. Control comes through appointments, where loyalty often outdoes meritocracy. Raila, through his personality, political party and connection to the masses, thawed the political winters. Freedom from the 2010 constitution, coupled with Kenyan innovation, ingenuity and openness, thawed the economic winter. Remember shortages when the economy was not liberalised, prices controlled? Will the 2027 election thaw the two winters? Salt is poured on the streets to lower the melting point of ice. Remember your Form II physics? What is the salt equivalent in our winters? A strong opposition? Genz? Another Raila? External parties like the IMF? Are you feeling the symptoms of political and economic winters? Noted the subdued economic and political activities and fear in the air? What are your winter jackets? Debts? Silence? Savings? Immigration? More hustling?

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