What are the economic dividends of Ruto's broad-based government?

President William Ruto chairs the Cabinet meeting at State House, Nairobi, December 17, 2024. [File, Standard] We predicted correctly that the meeting between the two presidents would bring beef home. It's now official that seven men from mountain (mlima) have joined the government. And their picking was not random. Nyeri was looped in to neutralise former DP Rigathi Gachagua. And the picking was ingenious, when vaccinating livestock is an issue. This will give Mutahi Kagwe lots of airtime away from Gachagua. Kenyans online were not late to add some humour to Mutahi's appointment; "from Covid to Cowvid"! It seems no stone will be left unturned till Gachagua suffers from political asphyxia. The next pick was Lee Kinyanjui, the former governor who seems to have done well in Nakuru. His neighbour Nderitu Mureithi was rumoured to be heading to the treasury, he almost got there with his appointment as KRA board chairman. William Kabogo was almost in Kenya Kwanza when he suddenly veered off just before the 2022 polls. His rehabilitation would ensure Kiambu is well represented. Another politician joining the fold is Kembi Gitura. It's not clear who he is counter weighting in Murang'a. Ndindi Nyoro? Add Peter Kenneth and Mwangi wa Iria. Will that mute their presidential ambitions? Will the new faces get mlima back to the political fold? Suppose the region is asked, what is better, three cabinet positions or DP? The inclusion of Mureithi and Kinyanjui ensures even the slopes of the mountain were taken care off. The two failed to recapture their seats despite their good work. For Mureithi, it was so good that Nyandarua wanted to be annexed by Laikipia. I would have loved to eavesdrop on the deliberations that brought the 'new faces' to the cabinet or boards. But the key factor is 2027 polls. Any political big wig is now in the government. That makes it hard for them to breathe politically. Remember when almost all MPs were assistant ministers in Kanu government? Will this co-option help spawn a new generation of leaders and politicians, now that all the others are in the same political basket? Will a broad based government strategy work? There is an assumption among our political elites that CSs and other senior government officials represent regions or communities and tribes. By appointing these men, their regions will feel represented in the government, be happier and vote 'well' in 2027. It is still that way in some regions. But that is fading. One, the voters rejected the appointees. They see their appointment as a spite on their intelligence. Two, and more important, is that representation is not the voters' priority, it's the economy. The conventional wisdom is that those appointed benefit themselves and their families. If there is any spillover to the rest of the society it's minimal. The voters in some regions might feel emotionally good, being represented at the highest level in the government. What about representation at the economic table? Will GDP now grow faster with a broad based government? Will there be more jobs? Will cost of living abate because we have more money in our pockets, not because of muted demand for lack of money? Let's be blunt; to most voters it does not matter who has the big job, the big question is if their living standards change. Can they get food, rent, school feels, clothes and save for a rainy day? The publicity around senior level appointments should worry us. It shows lack of opportunities elsewhere. These former MPs, governors, senators and others would be much sought-after in the private sector if our economy was expanding fast enough. And if they got the pre-requisite skills and experience. Who would not want such people in their boards? One piece of evidence that the economy is not growing fast enough is lack of initial public offers (IPOs). How many IPOs have we have had since Kibaki left power? IPOs are the gold standard of economic growth and transformation. They indicate we have nurtured startups and SMEs to maturity. And they have board positions! Without IPOs, the only lucrative jobs are in government. They have become premium and much coveted. Getting them is almost like winning a lottery. It's unlikely someone will turn down such jobs. We should also ask why technocrats are being replaced by career politicians in the Cabinet. Was the original thinking not to bring diversity in the Cabinet ? Don't we have enough politicians as MCAs, MPs, senators, and women reps? It's interesting that Uhuru Kenyatta also turned to politicians for top government jobs after trying technocrats. Donald Trump is doing the same. Is government that complex for technocrats? Are they too idealistic? We have another bigger concern; democracy is the government of the people by the people for the people. Do we risk making our government a government of politicians, by the politicians for politicians? Is feudalism making a silent comeback? We suggested last week that by bringing more mlima CSs into government ODM will no longer enjoy special status in Kenya Kwanza. It is like a first born getting a sibling. How will ODM handle sibling rivalry? Is that why some ODM big wigs also got appointed? The government at higher levels seems to have unlimited capacity. Should we worry that too many cooks spoil the broth? Finally, and in whispers. The broad based government was birthed by Gen Z protests. What is their place in the government? Have dynasties regrouped with new recruits? Happy Holidays, my fellow countrymen.

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