How will recovery shape up? Post-lockdown economic scenarios: Kemp

A Kenyan worker harvests flowers which are to be processed for export. The lockdown caused by Covid-19 has seen slow business activities in Europe and USA, the key markets for Kenyan flowers. [File, Standard]

Predicting the shape of recovery after a downturn in the business cycle is a favourite parlour game for economists and the coronavirus-induced plunge in business activity has resurrected the usual range of options.

Some forecasters see a fairly rapid and complete recovery once the lockdowns are lifted (V-shaped) while others see a delayed upturn (U-shaped) or a stuttering period of recoveries and renewed downturns (W-shaped).