A Cabinet reshuffle is opportune but will the coalition government survive?

Turning Point

Political temperatures are rising again with only eighteen months to the next General Election in 2012 — a year that could serve as a moment of truth to hundreds of the present political class.

Restlessness of the political class has everything to do with political self-preservation and little to do with loyalty or care about the wider national interest of Kenya.

Yes, the lives of the current crop of legislators are at stake as studies of past elections show that on average over 70 per cent of MPs are never re-elected back to Parliament.

The situation could be worse during the next General Election, as Kenyans have now become more sensitised — on their rights, responsibilities and obligations — to put the right leadership in positions of political power and authority.

Amid frailty and increasingly dysfunctional government are multiple challenges.

Self-preservation

In a way, a spirit of hopelessness is emerging and increasingly, people are seeing politicians as responsible for the many challenges confronting the nation. What, then, are the emerging issues?

First, it is apparent we could be at the threshold of yet another politically defining moment — where politicians will stop at nothing to ensure self-preservation even if it means disrupting the coalition.

The question now is apparently, not, whether, but with respect to how and who will make the first move to dissolve the coalition government.

Speculation is rife on which side would make the first shot on ‘coalition-destruction. Will it be Party of National Unity (PNU) as some of its MPs have threatened? Or will it be the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) so-called rebels to undertake the dirty work on behalf of its newfound ally — PNU?

Worse still, could more serious differences emerge in the implementation of the new Constitution that could serve as reason to dissolve the coalition government by either party?

Whatever the ultimate position, one, thing, is now absolutely clear: demise of the grand coalition government appears now more likely before the next elections?

Why? It is apparent the level of distrust and feeling of betrayal is getting entrenched among competing interests. Moreover, it is apparent the partners seem to savour every opportunity as a chance to fight for political supremacy.

Second, survival or demise of the Coalition hinges on political cards of the main political actors in what could yet prove to be the fiercest succession battle in our country’s political history. It is indisputable that Kenyans will elect a new President some time next year. Yes, next year — we can debate on the exact date, but the next election, must be held during 2012 — in line with the Constitution.

The political class might wish otherwise, but saving energy and money for their political survival would appear a reasonable proposition, but would it happen?

No! Since time immemorial, politicians have been responsible for determining the political environment.

Murky waters

It remains so today, with the highest political responsibility now vested in the two coalition leaders, President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga. As the coalition principals, the two hold the key to what happens next.

However, with Kibaki set retire in 18 months time and Raila hoping to succeed him, the political landscape is at this stage controlled and influenced by many political actors beyond the two leaders.

Thus, the political waters will remain murky and unsettling until the next election.

Third, can a Cabinet reshuffle help or fuel the politics and grandstanding such was witnessed on constitutional office appointments? Whatever, the consequences we are in a phase where succession politics are becoming an overriding factor in public affairs.

Unfinished business

This is of course, symptomatic of an increasingly restless political class and we have not seen the end yet. The dysfunctional Cabinet is demanding change, and a reshuffle of the team, dropping members from both sides of the political divide. The fundamental question remains: Can the President and Prime Minister agree on a Cabinet reshuffle or would they become captive of those seeking political capital?

Can a new team be constituted to enssure discipline and avoid political paralysis in constitutional reforms implementation? Well, it is a fact that leaders across political divide no longer value being in government any more than surviving the political saucepan of 2012.

Further, others have more compelling worries about the International Criminal Court’s unfinished business.

The continued political gamesmanship brings government into disrepute and something must be done to restore confidence.

Indeed, the people are yearning for more attention to the mounting challenges of poverty, unemployment, socio-economic and political stability.

The collective leadership must give priority to implementing the Constitution before it is too late as a matter of compelling public interest!

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