On which planet do pollsters do their work?

By Otuma Ong’alo

Two years before the next General Election, opinion polls on possible future presidents and their running mates have emerged.

The polls — though premature and unwarranted at this time — have caused excitements and uproars depending on how they portray the fortunes of various individuals and political camps.

Over a long period of time, across various places and after meeting people of all walks of life, I have conducted an opinion poll of sorts on opinion polls and the results are startling.

My survey lacks pretensions of science, it was not funded by any interested party, was not a business disguised as an academic pursuit, and lacked any vested political interests.

Out of the sampled population (I forget the figure), 100 per cent confessed that they had never been approached — including through email or phone — by any pollster or seen them in action. Mind you, in the course of my unorthodox poll, I interacted with individuals in city slums, leafy suburbs, rural villages, dingy busaa dens, and exclusive entertainment joints. I interacted with sober minds and individuals at various stages of intoxication. The more intoxicated the better respondents were since they spoke their true minds. Such individuals tell the pollster what they believe in and not what they want him to hear, which is one of the greatest flaws of conventional opinion polls.

Ninety-nine per cent of my respondents (don’t be so preoccupied with the sample size since pollsters say size does not matter) believe that some pollsters promote particular agendas or manipulate figures to appease those who sanction the polls. They cite lack of declaration of polls financiers as their basis of suspicion.

One respondent in Kamukuywa, who was at an advanced level of intoxication, pointed out that before the 2007 General Election, predictions on leading politicians and trailers varied according to the pollsters involved. He claimed there were ODM pollsters and PNU pollsters and other pollsters willing to act at the bidding of the highest bidders.

Another layabout but perennial voter dismissed some opinion poll firms as briefcase companies with CEOs who also double up as research assistants and analysts. He said he is a professional jobseeker but has never come across advertisements for job opportunities in opinion poll firms.

“How then do they hire the many employees who apparently seem to be ever on the road across the whole country?” he posed.

As Speaker Kenneth Marende would claim shortly before delivering gems of wisdom in august House, these are weighty issues. They are weighty since they bring into disrepute men and women who often speak with the confidence of biblical prophecy on future rulers. I, too, have never met a pollster at work or met anyone who has been interviewed by them or seen them interview other people. I have previously offered myself for sampling and I’m still waiting, ages later. On which planet do pollsters do their work before converging on earth to reveal the political future through press conferences?

In journalism, we are told, relevance and proximity are some of the determinants of news value. Information is only useful if it is timely, relevant to the society and conveys what immediately affects them. What is the essence of pollsters telling Kenyans about future leaders and pretenders to leadership two years before the elections? They are putting the nation in perpetual election mode and this is detrimental to national development and cohesion.

Although others may cite academic freedom, there is need for a regulatory body to curb against abuse of opinion polls. Not any Tom, Dick or Harry should set up shop and summon the media to outline predictions.

Issues on elections are quite sensitive. There is need to restrict the period within which opinion polls on elections polls can be carried out and also establish strict rules on what constitute valid opinion polls. Any pollster who is perpetually off the mark or fronts vested interests should be blacklisted.