Every risk matters: How foresight can save firms before disaster hits

The world gives hints of the direction taken every week. Most people move past them. Some of them take their time and review the changes that do not align with what was expected yesterday. Cyberattacks cross national borders within minutes. The strains of the environment become tighter. Artificial Intelligence (AI) opens new opportunities and reveals dangers that we have never thought of. Well, we live in an era with no waiting period. They overlap. They intensify unexpectedly. That is why foresight is no longer a choice. It allows us to notice the indications early enough to save people and make choices that we do not regret. This week's signal "From floods to cyber-attacks, political unrest to pandemics, organisations cannot afford to ignore the full spectrum of risk." Recently, a major hospital in Kenya had its patient records encrypted by hackers. Government websites were open to the dark - disrupting services to the people. Cloudflare went offline worldwide, halting or disabling X, Telegram, Spotify, and Facebook. These have been the events that prove what we have not wanted to acknowledge. On all fronts, institutions have been subjected to the shocks of politics, environmental catastrophe, cybercrime, health crises, financial shocks, and espionage. Foresight is a weak thing that makes systems that appear strong crumble without any prior notice. Few institutions worldwide are well risk-managed, and there are not enough examples of institutions predicting threats through technology. The KE CIRT/CC of Kenya reported billions of cyber threat attempts this year alone. The signs are unmistakable. The world is becoming unpredictable, and the price of being unprepared is rising. What it means for business Any organisation that lacks a business continuity plan or a functional risk department is gambling on hope. The companies that survive the disruption are those that wait and map all threats, including political chaos, natural disasters, cyberattacks, and internal fraud. They invest in backup, spare parts, sound insurance, evacuation, and data restoration. When Cloudflare failed, the institutions that were prepared remained online; the ones that had not heeded the warnings earlier incurred panic, service outages, and economic losses. Stability is not an accident. It will be the outcome of conscious planning, constant check-up, and leadership which will not put its people or its own future at risk. What it means for policy The subsequent risk wave will not be limited to physical or political factors. It will be moral, psychological and digital. The policymakers should reason well above the present threats and rule fearlessly. Artificial intelligence can now reproduce a deceased person's voice and appearance. Digital versions of their loved ones chatting as though they are living have shocked families. Others have termed the experience as emotionally disruptive. There are even applications that can create video footage of actual individuals engaging in sex with strangers. Others enable users to teach a model the voice of a leader and make that leader sound like they never thought they would. The possibility of misunderstanding, exploitation and a fragmented family is enormous. Here, the policy must be clear. People should not be misused, traumatised, impersonated or digitally distorted. Technology is not supposed to be a menace to society. The Office of the Data Protection Commissioner also plays a central role. It has to be full-fledged, enforce data-handling regulations, and safeguard citizens against abuse. Data protection cannot be symbolic. It has to be strong, steady and revered. What it means for the people Risks as law. Something can be legal and very wrong. Having the power to do something does not mean that you should. Integrity is also tested on the convergence of personal events, much before the final decision reaches the rest of the world. As Proverbs 10:9 reminds us: "Whoever walks in integrity walks securely, but whoever takes crooked paths will be found out." Companies that practice what is right, even when no one is around to observe them, earn trust that will outweigh any policy document. They do not just guard their people with systems, but with values. Afterthought The article emphasises the importance of foresight in addressing risks such as cyberattacks, political instability, and ecological catastrophes. It has placed a crucial role on business continuity plans, well-portrayed leaders, and initiative to curb disruption. Another moral issue highlighted in the piece is the need to be ethical in dealing with technology and to protect people's rights. "Decisions are made on the radar screen, but the future is yours." The writer is a human-centred strategist and leadership columnist.

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