How big money and brutal violence can decide poll outcomes

President William Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet and other leaders during campaigns for UDA Malava candidate David Ndakwa in Bukhakunga village, West Kabras, on November 24, 2025. Ndakwa won the election. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

This past week, Kenyans had a chance to elect new representatives in the seats that had fallen vacant since the 2022 election. Many commentators have sought to liken the by elections to the mini general elections of 1966. While the latter was occasioned by ideological fallout between Jomo Kenyatta and Oginga Odinga, the former was the result of political brinkmanship. After the 2022 elections the politicians were locked in an ego fest over the electoral body. Kenya Kwanza and Azimio engaged in maneuvers whose net effect was to ensure each side had the final say on the management of IEBC.